Wednesday, August 19, 2009

Arkansas Relevance! Huzzah!

Arkansas is like the tiny rural town of America. It's small, relatively isolated, and pretty much keeps to itself, save for a President and Presidential candidate here, a sex scandal that reinforces negative stereotypes there, and the world just keeps spinning.

It gets six votes in the Electoral College, and only four congressmen in the House. As far as the movers and shakers of the world go, very few have ever called Arkansas home. It's not a bad thing, or a good thing. It's just a fact.

But the political anomaly that is the Arkansas Democrat has thrust Arkansas into a new state of prominence, importance, and relevance.

Arkansas is nominally Democratic in the way that a four-hoofed mammal with antlers is a duck. You can call it a duck all you want, but the it walks, talks and acts very much like a deer. The Arkansas Democrat, with a few notable exceptions, walks, talks, and acts more like a Republican than many Republicans do. In fact, I'd wager that a vast majority of these Arkie Donkeys, placed anywhere that's more urban and more northern that Arkansas — which by sheer demography and geography, is a lot of places — and they'd be wearing their straw hats and talking about how awesome Newt Gingrich is.

This makes them, on the political spectrum, moderate Democrats. All of the state's Congressional Delegation qualify under this moniker, save for, of course, Rep. John "I'm So Ronery" Boozman, the state's only Republican.

As I've said before, Arkansas' moderate Democrats have been a showcase in the tension between moderates that some Arkansans can actually get behind and the far-Left wings of the Democratic Party, who have achieved sweeping majorities over the last three years and are running the show. Like I said, you've got a small minority in one group, and a bigger majority comprising of two groups who are splitting apart at the seams.

What does this mean for Arkansas? Swing votes...and attention.

Arkansas' delegates now have to think about what they're going to wear before they walk out that door. Comb that hair, Ross! Shine them boots, Berry. Theme-ties again, Snyder? Smile big, Blanche!...not that big. Marky Mark, bring wet naps. Since President Obama took office in January, You've seen Arkansas' delegates mentioned on matters such as climate change, health care, and you're going to see them on issues such as immigration, gay issues, and whatever else comes up.

They represent the final totals on the Majority Whip's role call. Not only that, but each delegate has been going at it for awhile, each one having been re-elected several times back to their current position. That means seniority and authority, as shown in Mike Ross' case of being able to slam the breaks on health care reform, putting it back to September, and Sen. Lincoln's role in the Senate Finance Committee, which is seeing health care, and will see climate change and a number of other important issues.

And it will continue to be this way, as more and more issues pile up that pit the conservative constituency of Arkansas against the more liberal tendencies of the Democratic Leadership. Hey, they're in charge. That's their prerogative.

But there might be consequences in, say, 2010. Currently, all of the delegates should be pretty comfortable. They're all household names and, like I said earlier, have been re-elected numerous times. But with polling places (of the Democratic persuasion no less) saying that Arkansas is the most likely state to see a large shift from Democratic to Republican in 2010, it's easy to see why these guys might be shedding the spotlight and awkwardly pulling at their collars.

The best example of this is (sigh) Sen. Lincoln. I feel like I'm joining in on beating a dead horse, but the fact of the matter is she's a big target that a lot of people are seeing as vulnerable. Every step she takes that sides more with the President — who is very unpopular in Arkansas — that will be translated and transmitted as a step away from Arkansas' values, even if, in truth, those two steps might be compatible. That's what she'll argue anyway, but my and most everyone else's guess is that those arguments, no matter how true, will fall on deaf, if not actively non-acquiescent, ears.

Anyway, for the average Arkansan, all this means is that you'll be able to go to a national news source to hear about your representation at home. And maybe be able to recognize the person who's actually doing that representing.

2 comments:

  1. Great analysis again Zack. Have to tell you for someone so young in years you are wise in thoughts and words. Keep it up, the Teams enjoy it. The real question your outlook. My question is how is the State GOP going to afford any sort of campaign in the state. Does anyone know do they have any money left over from past disasters? Is the Arkansas State Republican party having financial problems? It looks like they are $108,000 in the hole just in the last year.

    http://idaretomakeadifference.com/the-window/

    18F out

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  2. 1. Arkansas Us Senate 2010 Analysis
    -DC Monthly Political View -August 20, 2009 – Republican Party Chairman Michael Steele’s instructions today to the State GOP about strategies to deal with Independent US Senate office seeker Trevor Drown have many local republicans unhappy. Steele, was in Little Rock today, meeting with Doyle Webb and other members of party leadership. First item on the agenda: securing the US Senate seat that is held by democrat Blanche Lincoln. Polls show Lincoln, who is running for her third term has little to no support across all categories. Normally this would appear to provide the GOP the ability to pick up a senate seat but for few problems. There is a major negative view across the state for the republicans. The current 5 to 8 possible candidates include everyone from a ultra-conservative riding Huckabee’s coattails to a clueless retired Army Colonel. In between a tea party boat builder, a FEDex driver/real estate investor and a few other odds and ends. Add to their problems continuous racist comments and plantation owner language and you have a image problem. Couple this with the concern the state party is in the red, and may be in financial trouble with a net loss of $108,000 in the last 12 months
    Another factor will be the nominal entry of a Green Party member. In the past three Federal elections The Greens have done something Republican’s have yet to do. Provide a candidate to run against the incumbent. This continues to be a problem statewide as republicans fail to recruit anyone at various state level and higher offices to run including taking in the very popular Governor Beebe. This poor leadership attitude may result in no republicans being allowed on the 2012 ballot without gathering from 2,000 to 10,000 signatures themselves.
    Speaking of signatures, according to inside sources present at the meeting earlier today, Michael Steele named former Green Beret, the number one threat to the Republican Party in Arkansas. He has the looks, brains, leadership style and the support of the people in Arkansas. A grassroots movement, already underway has worried many GOP leaders since it is expected he will easily get the required 10,000 signatures by May 2010. When it was discovered members of party leadership had tried to recruit Drown and he turned him down, heads were shaking and many at the meeting heard Steele mumble that was “bad, very bad.” Things got a little heated when it was further discovered once he had turned them done, certain members of the party who also hold statewide office combined their efforts with a local blogger to discredit Drown.
    One staffer from the GOP D.C. office said, this is what is wrong with you people. You still think this is the 19th century. You need to ignore, him, never mention his name never acknowledge him. If you recognize his existence you elevate him to our level. The time to take him out will be only if he gets the signatures next May.
    There were a few moderate republicans not happy with how the state party has handled the Drown affair. Targeting a veteran of the Global War on terror did not sit well with them. Internally, within the party support is already waning and infighting increases daily due to the GOP’s silent nod of approval being given to Curtis Coleman.
    This next election could be the start of a rising force in this country, the Independent. Arkansas appears to be one of the battleground states. When you look at the numbers and realize only 55,000 registered voters are democrats, 45,000 republicans and the remaining 1.6 million are registered as optional or independents, political strategists know it is time to worry. Consequently, we are predicting that Trevor Drown looks like the strongest contender at this point.

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