Wednesday, June 25, 2008

Why There Will Not Be an Obama/Clinton Ticket

In a legendarily large scale primary season, victors on both sides have stepped forward to become their party’s presumed candidate. The Republican nominee was decided some months ago with septuagenarian Senator John McCain. But a much closer primary, with much more fireworks, was battled over on the Democrat’s side, with political heavyweight Hillary Clinton being narrowly defeated in a comeback fashion by Senator Barack Obama. The intra-party war was vicious and divisive. It was so discordant that many within the party and out are wondering, is it possible for these two to come together on a single ticket?

It seems logical enough: the second-place candidate should get the vice-presidency. This was, after all, the original line of thought for the general election during the Constitutional Convention, before candidates ran with hand-picked running mates. This method was eradicated in the wake of the twelfth amendment, when candidates such as Thomas Jefferson were uncomfortable with the successor to the presidency being of a different political party. Shortly after, candidates began selecting their own vice-presidential nominee. However there are no rules concerning the selection of a running mate within the party itself. And, in this case, the runner-up (Clinton) was very nearly the winner. It would make sense for Obama to fetch Clinton’s supporters into the fold by bringing her on board.

But the decision is ultimately up to Barack and his political advisors. Don’t look for the Obama/Clinton ticket anytime soon. It won’t happen. There are simply too many factors that go against one’s first logical inclinations as previously listed above. Here are just a few:

Very Different Candidates: For both being Democrats, Clinton and Obama have stark contrasts as well, which is one of the reasons why the Democratic primary was so open for so long. Hillary is much more of a centrist than Obama, just like her husband was. Obama, during his short time in the Senate, has one of the most liberal voting records in the Senate. From exit strategies in Iraq to immigration reform and foreign policy to subtle differences in health care, these two candidates have their obvious differences. But their differences are not just political, they are also aesthetic. Obama is a charismatic dreamboat, while Clinton is a hard-nosed individual who speaks with more of an all-business tone. Just because they’re both popular does not mean they are necessarily amicable together, which brings me to my next point.

The Battle Was Too Violent: The shots taken during the primary season were more violent than an Ultimate Fighting cage match. The scene was gritty and tense and the winner was the one who was able to limp across the finish line, and it turned out to be Obama. He claimed in what was essentially his victory speech in St. Paul, Minnesota on June 3rd that he was made into a better candidate by the arduous primary he ran against Hillary. But he’s better in a way that a soldier is better by going through boot camp; sure, he’s better because of it, but that doesn’t mean he wants to go through it again. There will be civility between the two in the future but that doesn’t mean that the obvious animosity between them will be completely diminished.

Obama Doesn’t Need Clinton to Secure Her Supporters: A common argument for the fusion of the two politicians is that the rift between the two candidates is so deep that it extends to their faithful followers. The claim that Hillary’s supporters would rather vote for McCain over Obama is a bit of a stretch. While there are certainly a few people who may feel that way, there is simply no way that very many, much less the majority of her supporters, would vote against Hillary’s own party. Plus, Hillary has said she would do whatever it takes to help the Democratic Party in general, even if Obama is their poster boy. Obama does not need her on the ticket to get her supporters: they vote Democrat anyway.

Too Many Chiefs…: This is the main reason I don’t see these two coming together. If either one of these candidates would be elected, it would be historic. Hillary would have obviously been the first woman elected President, and if Obama is, he’ll be the first African-American. Obama already has the historical significance he needs to perhaps sway some voters. Plus, their personalities and egos may not have adequate room to breathe on the same ticket. And don’t be foolish enough to think that either one of these candidates are willing to sacrifice their personalities and egos; their careers are in politics and thrive on those two qualities.

Each candidate will have to select their running mate much more carefully in the wake of one of the most unprecedented and powerful vice-presidencies ever, namely Dick Cheney’s tenure. It matters more than ever who each candidate picks. Look for both candidates, McCain and Obama, to pick running mates who supplement features which they by themselves lack. This means it’s probable for McCain to select a youthful and vibrant running mate to counter his somewhat abrasive image as a crusty, old veteran (his running mate may be especially important, as many voters are concerned about McCain’s health and age and may need to see a vice-presidential candidate they could possibly see as the role of President itself). Obama will seek someone with experience, someone who will reflect his energetic image but also keep his ticket grounded (i.e. don’t look for his running mate to have his own seductive YouTube ad like Obama does). It’s really rather ironic; were the two of the same political mind, they would very likely select one another.