I'll Flinch When Those Polling Numbers Tell Me Something I Don't Already Know

Word from Arkansas: Blanche Lincoln, Democratic Arkansas Senator up for rere-election in 2010, is in...(record scratch) trouble!!

Looks like she'll be facing a TOUGH CAMPAIGN?! And she'll have to raise SEVERAL MILLION DOLLARS IN ORDER TO HAVE A CHANCE TO WIN?! And she's having to WATCH HER EVERY WAKING MOVE FOR THE NEXT YEAR AND A HALF?!

What's going on here?! Locusts! Famine! Boils! Down is up! Up is down! The weatherman is wrong and dogs and cats are sleeping together...IT'S MASS HYSTERIA!

Ugh. This has been the story since about December of last year. Polling numbers are usually only good if they're telling you something new. There isn't an amateur political analyst out there who doesn't think that Lincoln and her campaign manager Steve Patterson aren't fidgeting nervously about next November.

But nothing so far has changed. All of her potential challengers in the Republican ranks are rather puny at this point, able to be handled handily by a large bank account, which she undoubtedly will be able to muster at her whim.

State Sen. Bob Johnson, Bigelow's Democratic Senate President, has thrown a wrinkle into the story, but this shouldn't be altogether unexpected. There's got to be a more ambitious Democrat out there who might want to take a poke at the U.S. Senate -- Why not Bigelow Bob? It's certainly not a matter of party loyalty; that's why we have primaries in the first place.

So this is going to be a grinder in the Natural State. It will likely be that way until February. We will see if Bobby Boy really steps up to the plate against Blanche, where I suspect he would collapse under the weight of her checkbook and name recognition. Then she would face hitherto paltry opposition against the GOP.

There are three outcomes, all of which seem kind of probable at this point, verified by those same tired polling numbers we've seen rehashed and re-edited over and over again: She is defeated in a primary, she is defeated in a general election, or she will win it all.

Her bank account, name recognition and political tenacity make her a shoe-in for the last position. But those outcomes, statistically speaking, make her twice as likely to be defeated.

The result: No difference yet. Come back in a few months. Let's move on to a different subject: I don't think we're talking enough about this whole health care business, do you?

PoLOLitical Stuff: Last Acts of Desperate Men

Arkansas Relevance! Huzzah!

Arkansas is like the tiny rural town of America. It's small, relatively isolated, and pretty much keeps to itself, save for a President and Presidential candidate here, a sex scandal that reinforces negative stereotypes there, and the world just keeps spinning.

It gets six votes in the Electoral College, and only four congressmen in the House. As far as the movers and shakers of the world go, very few have ever called Arkansas home. It's not a bad thing, or a good thing. It's just a fact.

But the political anomaly that is the Arkansas Democrat has thrust Arkansas into a new state of prominence, importance, and relevance.

Arkansas is nominally Democratic in the way that a four-hoofed mammal with antlers is a duck. You can call it a duck all you want, but the it walks, talks and acts very much like a deer. The Arkansas Democrat, with a few notable exceptions, walks, talks, and acts more like a Republican than many Republicans do. In fact, I'd wager that a vast majority of these Arkie Donkeys, placed anywhere that's more urban and more northern that Arkansas — which by sheer demography and geography, is a lot of places — and they'd be wearing their straw hats and talking about how awesome Newt Gingrich is.

This makes them, on the political spectrum, moderate Democrats. All of the state's Congressional Delegation qualify under this moniker, save for, of course, Rep. John "I'm So Ronery" Boozman, the state's only Republican.

As I've said before, Arkansas' moderate Democrats have been a showcase in the tension between moderates that some Arkansans can actually get behind and the far-Left wings of the Democratic Party, who have achieved sweeping majorities over the last three years and are running the show. Like I said, you've got a small minority in one group, and a bigger majority comprising of two groups who are splitting apart at the seams.

What does this mean for Arkansas? Swing votes...and attention.

Arkansas' delegates now have to think about what they're going to wear before they walk out that door. Comb that hair, Ross! Shine them boots, Berry. Theme-ties again, Snyder? Smile big, Blanche!...not that big. Marky Mark, bring wet naps. Since President Obama took office in January, You've seen Arkansas' delegates mentioned on matters such as climate change, health care, and you're going to see them on issues such as immigration, gay issues, and whatever else comes up.

They represent the final totals on the Majority Whip's role call. Not only that, but each delegate has been going at it for awhile, each one having been re-elected several times back to their current position. That means seniority and authority, as shown in Mike Ross' case of being able to slam the breaks on health care reform, putting it back to September, and Sen. Lincoln's role in the Senate Finance Committee, which is seeing health care, and will see climate change and a number of other important issues.

And it will continue to be this way, as more and more issues pile up that pit the conservative constituency of Arkansas against the more liberal tendencies of the Democratic Leadership. Hey, they're in charge. That's their prerogative.

But there might be consequences in, say, 2010. Currently, all of the delegates should be pretty comfortable. They're all household names and, like I said earlier, have been re-elected numerous times. But with polling places (of the Democratic persuasion no less) saying that Arkansas is the most likely state to see a large shift from Democratic to Republican in 2010, it's easy to see why these guys might be shedding the spotlight and awkwardly pulling at their collars.

The best example of this is (sigh) Sen. Lincoln. I feel like I'm joining in on beating a dead horse, but the fact of the matter is she's a big target that a lot of people are seeing as vulnerable. Every step she takes that sides more with the President — who is very unpopular in Arkansas — that will be translated and transmitted as a step away from Arkansas' values, even if, in truth, those two steps might be compatible. That's what she'll argue anyway, but my and most everyone else's guess is that those arguments, no matter how true, will fall on deaf, if not actively non-acquiescent, ears.

Anyway, for the average Arkansan, all this means is that you'll be able to go to a national news source to hear about your representation at home. And maybe be able to recognize the person who's actually doing that representing.

Lincoln: Up Yours, Vocal & Active Constituency!

I would have loved to have seen the look on Steve Patterson's face around 11 in the morning, as Sen. Lincoln was wrapping up her press conference with Arkansas reporters on Thursday.

Patterson, Lincoln's campaign manager who is most certainly gearing up for a tough re-election bid, was probably sitting in his office in Little Rock, or maybe even her office in D.C. Depending on if or how big his breakfast was, maybe he was thinking about lunch.

Should I go to Wendy's again? he might've been pondering. But I just went there yesterday...but nobody saw me. Maybe I can go there again...I did almost get the spicy chicken. Maybe I'll get that today. But those square patties are-...

Then he heard that buzz word, that word that says so much while spelling so little: un-American. He could've sworn he had heard it from his client, Sen. Lincoln's mouth.

She must be talking about how dumb and polarizing and really, really dumb it was to use that word to discuss a politically biased stance, he probably mused to himself. Man, that Bush guy really helped us out by doing that.

Then his expression probably became a little more grim, aspirations of a delicious chicken sandwich, Frosty, and routine incumbent election quickly evaporating into the vapors. Had Sen. Lincoln had just called several hundred of her vocal constituency "un-American?"

Hang on, Steve might've thought to himself, in that low, booming voice that I hope is his inner-thought voice as well, Blanche is smarter than this. He'd be right, too. Sen. Lincoln frustrates many conservatives with her ability to tread politically difficult matters with somewhat ease, if not persistent thoroughness. Being a Democrat, her party and those running it are decidedly more liberal than probably she is, but most certainly more so than her constituency is. She has threaded the needle, as they say, and done so quite well with such a large bull's eye on her back.

She may weave 27 minute answers to some questions, but she has her points, sticks to them, and rarely gives much away.

Oh, she couldn't have done that, Steve, time to lay off the crazy pills, this isn't a Styx and Kansas concert, laughed Patterson to himself.

“It’s so sad, because it’s diminishing to the process, it’s diminishing to our outcome...I think it’s sad that they choose to do that," he recalled her saying. "I think it’s un-American and disrespectful."

I am going to throw up all over these tasseled loafers, a now pale and mortified Arkansas campaign manager may have thought to himself.

She had. She had called her some of her most vocal constituency "un-American." Not only are they the most vocal, but judging by their likely political leanings, they're a constituency that would be most offended by being branded as "un-American." They're vocal, they're on the move, they're willing to campaign against her now for no wage or interest other than their own: They will be a terrible nightmare for business, thought Patterson.

Some of these nuts are running against her already, Patterson might have pondered, noting the growing roster of Ricky Randoms, many of whom nobody outside their small circle of friends and relatives would know, recognize, or lend any help to. All of those guys just got a little more credibility, the now-worry-wrought Steve Patterson might have thought.

Maybe it won't be that bad, he might have scrambled in his head, trying to weave his way around the situation. He'd be fooling himself. While it's certainly no "that Jew" statement, it certainly is self-stubbing of the toe. Sen. Lincoln tripped up, insulted her constituency (much in the same way that Curtis Coleman chap did, eh?), and now looks like she's going to have to eat those words in every debate and campaign ad.

Will it cost her the election? Doubtful, as all of her challengers are those people who are best defined as 'ambiguous.' But someone well-funded with a compelling narrative that's relatively well-liked? It could be a loud speed bump, and we're only just in August of 2009...There's time, Patterson might have concluded, both optimistically at the time to dig herself out of the hole presented here and in her polling numbers and pessimistically at the time for a real candidate to emerge.

What in the name of holy flying horse snot is going on with this campaign?! Patterson thought madly to himself, the only visible sign of his rising anger a small twitch of his left eyelid. You know what, I hate this freaking job! This has got to be the most worthless, hapless, hopeless re-election campaign I've ever been a part of. I wake up every morning, look at those poll numbers, and curl up in a little fetal ball and cry my eyes out, because this is just a mess, Patterson might have mused as his face became more red and his knuckles became more white. Two terms? TWO TERMS?! What kind of amateur, rookie, bush-league, open-mic night at the Apollo is this Senate race supposed to be, huh? Now fuming in his own mind, I swear to God Almighty I am going to go off on a Clark-Griswold-esque rant that may or may not involve me punching numerous interns and aides in the face and thrusting my head in the toilet until the someone drags me out and puts me in the dumpster out back with the rest of the toiletries and all the health care reform placards and pickets!

He paused. Inhaled.

"Uh...Blanche? I think we should issue a retraction."

Caption Contest! PoLOLitical Stuff

It's an early weekend, and therefore, is an early caption contest. In light of a recent dearth of comments, I've decided to kick it up a notch, and add some photos that already have comments on the photos themselves.

By all means, feel free to add more comments, captions, suggestions, or threats on my personal well-being. All are appreciated.

And yes, this is a clear cut example of my phoning it in today. Enjoy, and have a merry Independence Day, and take part in America's favorite pastime — recklessly and dangerously blowing up stuff that is highly flammable.

Lincoln's a Cool Customer on Health Care

Sen. Blanche Lincoln and I have done our fair share of conversating over the past few months. From card check to energy reform and in between, the Senator has always been good to call me back for an interview, and we've had many.

The headliner as of late, as you already well know, is what are we going to do about health care. Lincoln sits on the ever-powerful Senate finance committee that will be responsible for footing the bill, a bill that many are estimating is mighty steep, at over $1 trillion.

That's no chump change for anyone.

Lincoln has stated that she has no definitive stance on the issue, only the vague, tepid response that she is for "whatever it is that works," fulfilling all of the goals for all of the problems that there are or may be in the health care arena. That's a rather tall order.

So you can understand how ambitious it must be for her to say that she expects a health care bill next week, as everyone returns from the July 4th recess. To go from having no preference whatsoever, as she stated to me several times is her position, on a specific position — be it a public option, co-op, or any other option — to having some meat on the table will surely be something.

Actually, what it shows is that beneath the tame surface, there is a frenzy of activity in the legislative waters on health care. But with all of her weight being shifted equally, we have no idea how she'll land.

My guess — again, guess, mind you — is that we'll be presented with something remarkably similar if not identical to the public option proposed by President Obama, only reworded to fix the well-publicized collective aversion to the socialist-sounding moniker of "public option." I think Obama, a former Senator, will be able to make sure his goal is taken care of with a small, 100-person room full of his former colleagues, which as of yesterday, also happens to be a supermajority.

Cap-and-trade, a divisive bill that split the Democratic party down a rural fence, passed in the House, in no small part due to Obama's backing. It will die in the Senate, but the message is still clear.

Like Arkansas Gov. Mike Beebe during the past legislative session, I think President Obama could be riding his popularity to the bank, nearly sweeping all of his legislative agenda points, any one of which would have been remarkable, but all of them? That's big time.

That's Senator Franken To You

My fellow Americans, our long national nightmare is over.

Al Franken, the former SNL Funnyman, has won the U.S. Senate race in Minnesota, with his decidedly unfunny opponent, Norm Coleman conceding defeat.

Way to go guys. Only took you eight months. Healthy children have been conceived and born in that time, albeit prematurely.

For Republicans, this is yet another in a long line of kicks to gaping hole that used to be their gut. Not only does their Doomsday Theory of 60 seats in the Senate being controlled by Democrats inch closer to reality, but simply speaking, they threw the pocketbook at this problem, spending over a million bones in the last three months.

I've only met handful of people from Minnesota, and none of them are worth a million dollars.

That's not to say that Democrats didn't put a lot into soon-to-be Senator Franken's campaign either. Franken is going to have an even greater impetus to achieve in his inaugural term. He will be heavily scrutinized by his opponents, but also the independents in the Land of 10,000 Metaphorical Lakes.

I'm very interested to see how Franken fares, regardless of his political leanings. Democrats can recognize good, hard work from Republicans and vice versa. Independents don't care about that stuff anyway. Franken should have no problem being a good speaker, but let's see if he is persuasive. Or at least worth the trouble of letting Minnesota go eight months without being represented by two Senators.

Even Arkansas has that.

Speaking of the Natural State, the local angle could be that now Sens. Lincoln and Pryor, moderate, rural Democrats, will have more pressure on them than they had when Democrats lacked the filibuster-ending 60 votes. Every Democratic vote will now be crucial. Expect those who are trying to temper the more liberal-inclinations of the party for the sake of their political lives — like Lincoln, a Democrat up for re-election in 2010 in conservative Arkansas — to feel more heat.

Today, Lincoln and Pryor both professed their reservations for the House-approved Cap-and-Trade bill. While it will be much more difficult to achieve in the Senate, you can tell by the ruckus in the House that it's an important Democratic issue. And if President Obama is going to phone lil ole Rep. Mike Ross, D-Pig's Knuckle, and try to get him to vote for such legislation, one has to believe that for Obama-issues, Pryor and Lincoln will get Obama-calls too.

I'm looking forward to hearing Franken's first floor speech. And I'll be watching for Pryor and Lincoln's reactions.

Hold the Phone: Lincoln 'Doesn't Favor' Co-Ops, 'Not Against' Public Option

"It's a complicated thing," Sen. Blanche Lincoln laughed while talking me over the phone Tuesday, after we discussed health care for about 30 minutes.

She's right. And the minutiae is excruciating.

As it's toward the end of an article about a study rather than the subject itself, a shift on Lincoln's stance in the health care debate might be buried. I reported last week that Lincoln favors a co-op rather than the public option proposed by the President.

I said it because that's what she had said. She said perhaps I misunderstood, rather, that she believed her colleagues would be more receptive and understand better the idea of co-ops, being that they are so prevalent already, with electric and housing co-ops and the like.

She doesn't prefer a co-op over a public option. Rather, she prefers what works.

"People have gotten too tied up in titles and don't focus on the goals," said Lincoln. "The key is to meet the goals," citing those goals as making sure that whatever it is is competitive, transparent, efficient, affordable, and provides an option of coverage for those who'd like to keep their insurance.

"Co-op? Sure. Public option? Sure. Fall back plan? Sure. State to state plan? Sure," said Lincoln.

Lincoln said that there are a number of different definitions for the term "public plan," some in which the government controls everything, and some of which that have varying degrees of government intervention therein.

What does a public option mean for Lincoln? She wouldn't say. Rather, she just made sure that she was clear on the matter: She's for whatever, as long as it gets those aforementioned goals attained.

Right now, nothing is on paper. There are proposals, there are prototypes being scrawled in closed door meetings. But there is no one clear plan, so far, that has been agreed upon. If that plan comes out, and it works, she'll be for it.

So for the record: Sen. Lincoln isn't for the co-op, but she's not against the co-op. She's not for the public option, whatever that is, but she's not against the public option either.

She's for whatever it is that works.

What Does a 'Nervous' Blanche Lincoln Mean?

Elections being what they are, candidates may begin to feel the heat unusually early these days, and by these days, I mean in recent memories.

Barack Obama campaigned for two years. As did Hillary, McCain, Huckabee, et al. It's what you do now. Maybe it's for the best; Keeps politicians on their toes and keeps their feet to the fire to represent their constituency. The Founders set up varying years of tenure so there would be varying levels of insulation from the constituency, but that's the way it is now anyway. Deal with it.

Anyway, that's why we're looking into Sen. Blanche Lincoln's rerere-election bid a mere 15 months prior to the date. Not just us. She's looking hard at it too. You can look at her campaign cash stash if you need convincing.

David Sanders' Sunday column about her concern about the election confirms what everyone knows: It's going to be a tough re-election, but she's confident she's got the firepower and the name recognition to over come it.

But over $2.5 million — maybe even more at this point — cash in hand already doesn't spell confidence. It spells the need to obliterate, crush, destroy any opponents after aptly scaring away sane candidates.

If you feel in the mood to hear an interesting, strong-worded and long-winded rant conversation on how much money matters in a political race, ask David Kinkade of the Arkansas Project, former Asa Hutchinson wingman during the 2006 gubernatorial race. It made a believer out of me.

The field vying to beat Lincoln is shifting awkwardly, kicking the dirt and shrugging. Finally, we have someone other than Kim "Shalom" Hendren who has officially declared, but I forget his name and know him only as "that Tea Party guy." Oh, yeah. Tom Cox. The shortness of his name will help its recognition, but he still has quite a long ways to go, he himself acknowledging last night that he is indeed a "fringe" candidate.

One thing I'd be interested to see is if the national Tea Party folks rally behind Cox. It's been widely reported that he's the first from the Don't-Tread-On-Me movement to run for office. Basically, it's a question of whether or not FoxNews cares enough about an Arkansas Senate race. There might be a lotta dollar to be had in that circle.

Or maybe not. I'm hearing that some people might not be so keen on this idea, taking a dissent movement and anthropomorphizing it into a senate candidate. That would be one to watch.

I'm hearing the force is strong with Tom Cotton, again with a cool short name, and I hear Harvard credentials to raise cheddar. Not to mention a Disney-esque narrative that would give anybody a good chill. Not everyone may love war, but everyone loves the troops. From what I gather, this guy is a good soldier.

Baker is giving me the same feeling the now-Senatorially-defunct Tim Griffin was giving me: A whole lotta talking, not alotta walking. While I think Griffin might have been doing it for reasons other than a Senate seat, Baker has twin reservations: A family back home (awwww) and a plush, enviable seat in the Arkansas legislature. I'm beginning to think maybe his funding resources might be bailing on him, and he's not assured that he can win. But that's just me. He could announce tomorrow, then I'd look like the buffoon.

Curtis Coleman is an enigma. He says he can raise the money. He obviously has a very scripted response to anyone who has a problem with his divorce (which you can go here if you'd like to see the bajillion comments of people who do or don't), and I don't think that a state in which over 50 percent of the population has dealt with divorce will really begrudge him that (although, there's also a majority of Baptist folks — even the once who have been divorced — who say it'll affect their vote). But maybe it will.

The problems for all of the would-be challengers are the same for anybody who's taking on an incumbent: Name recognition and money raising ability. There's only one person who has both, and enough of both to make a race of it against Lincoln, and we all know that despite facebook pages to the contrary, Huckabee likely has his sights focused elsewhere.

At the end of the day, Lincoln looks strong, both due to her own firepower and the lack thereof for her competition. But again, she's seen the numbers. She's collected the ammo monies. What does a nervous Blanche Lincoln mean? It means that there's something out there that isn't exactly clear that's making her at least anxious, if not nervous.

Who knows, though. Could just be an abundance of caution.

Who Competes with the Government? And Wins?

"I fought the law and the law won." -Sonny Curtis and the Crickets

I read in the New York Times over the weekend that President Obama is getting a little bit fed up with the rate at which health care legislation is getting taken care of, and even more concerned that some of the things he would prefer to be in the legislation might get left out.

One note toward the beginning stuck out in my mind. The article states that one of the primary notes Obama is concerned with making certain is in the bill is the government-option insurance plan that would compete with private companies.

During an interview several weeks ago with Blanche Lincoln, who has given many lines of press releases on the matter of health care in this session, said she would be in favor of such a government option. Basically, the program would give every one the same benefits as a Federal Employee, which everyone knows are just grand. But it would be an option if they so chose; If they've got a better plan, they'd be more than welcome to choose that.

In a lot of ways, it makes sense. Think of the United States Post Office, slugging it out with the likes of FedEx, UPS, DHS, a friend of mine proffered. There is a service that needs to be rendered, in this care, health insurance. In order to keep the other companies honest and not gouge, the government would directly compete with them in order to insure that the prices were fair and affordable.

It's basic economics. There's a demand. Competition is the backbone of free market functionality. If insurance companies are going to run their affairs like cartels, who minds the government being a thorn in their side, keeping them honest?

Still...

It'd be like playing against the home team. In a stadium they built. In a state they run in a country they regulate. The rules are all theirs, and can change any rule at any time for any advantage, with a simple vote by 600 people who work for that team.

Plus, I'm pretty sure the goal of business competition is to put the other guy out of business, which I hope isn't the goal of the U.S., unless that business is an illegal one.

I'm not a conspiracy theorist. We landed on the moon, the Holocaust happened, and Barack Obama is a legal U.S. Citizen and a Christian to boot. But giving the government free reign to compete against another business sounds trickier than the fruits might be worth.

I wrote awhile back about my slight aversion toward the new seat belt restrictions that passed through the Arkansas Legislature this year. My aversion was not that police officers are inherently racist and therefore it should be assumed they are going to pull over every African-American they see on the road. My hesitancy is that there will already be that suspicion, and rather than wind it further down the road, always having it assailed, it might be better to find another avenue.

Health care might be an issue that needs resolving post haste, I don't think there's anyone who believes the contrary, and that everything is a-okay right now. But I'm not sure that the possibility of the government under-cutting one business and then perhaps moving on to another is going to sit well with people.

Since I already spoke to one of them about it, I look forward to hearing about possible pros, cons, and maybe even alternatives from our delegates.