What Does a 'Nervous' Blanche Lincoln Mean?

Elections being what they are, candidates may begin to feel the heat unusually early these days, and by these days, I mean in recent memories.

Barack Obama campaigned for two years. As did Hillary, McCain, Huckabee, et al. It's what you do now. Maybe it's for the best; Keeps politicians on their toes and keeps their feet to the fire to represent their constituency. The Founders set up varying years of tenure so there would be varying levels of insulation from the constituency, but that's the way it is now anyway. Deal with it.

Anyway, that's why we're looking into Sen. Blanche Lincoln's rerere-election bid a mere 15 months prior to the date. Not just us. She's looking hard at it too. You can look at her campaign cash stash if you need convincing.

David Sanders' Sunday column about her concern about the election confirms what everyone knows: It's going to be a tough re-election, but she's confident she's got the firepower and the name recognition to over come it.

But over $2.5 million — maybe even more at this point — cash in hand already doesn't spell confidence. It spells the need to obliterate, crush, destroy any opponents after aptly scaring away sane candidates.

If you feel in the mood to hear an interesting, strong-worded and long-winded rant conversation on how much money matters in a political race, ask David Kinkade of the Arkansas Project, former Asa Hutchinson wingman during the 2006 gubernatorial race. It made a believer out of me.

The field vying to beat Lincoln is shifting awkwardly, kicking the dirt and shrugging. Finally, we have someone other than Kim "Shalom" Hendren who has officially declared, but I forget his name and know him only as "that Tea Party guy." Oh, yeah. Tom Cox. The shortness of his name will help its recognition, but he still has quite a long ways to go, he himself acknowledging last night that he is indeed a "fringe" candidate.

One thing I'd be interested to see is if the national Tea Party folks rally behind Cox. It's been widely reported that he's the first from the Don't-Tread-On-Me movement to run for office. Basically, it's a question of whether or not FoxNews cares enough about an Arkansas Senate race. There might be a lotta dollar to be had in that circle.

Or maybe not. I'm hearing that some people might not be so keen on this idea, taking a dissent movement and anthropomorphizing it into a senate candidate. That would be one to watch.

I'm hearing the force is strong with Tom Cotton, again with a cool short name, and I hear Harvard credentials to raise cheddar. Not to mention a Disney-esque narrative that would give anybody a good chill. Not everyone may love war, but everyone loves the troops. From what I gather, this guy is a good soldier.

Baker is giving me the same feeling the now-Senatorially-defunct Tim Griffin was giving me: A whole lotta talking, not alotta walking. While I think Griffin might have been doing it for reasons other than a Senate seat, Baker has twin reservations: A family back home (awwww) and a plush, enviable seat in the Arkansas legislature. I'm beginning to think maybe his funding resources might be bailing on him, and he's not assured that he can win. But that's just me. He could announce tomorrow, then I'd look like the buffoon.

Curtis Coleman is an enigma. He says he can raise the money. He obviously has a very scripted response to anyone who has a problem with his divorce (which you can go here if you'd like to see the bajillion comments of people who do or don't), and I don't think that a state in which over 50 percent of the population has dealt with divorce will really begrudge him that (although, there's also a majority of Baptist folks — even the once who have been divorced — who say it'll affect their vote). But maybe it will.

The problems for all of the would-be challengers are the same for anybody who's taking on an incumbent: Name recognition and money raising ability. There's only one person who has both, and enough of both to make a race of it against Lincoln, and we all know that despite facebook pages to the contrary, Huckabee likely has his sights focused elsewhere.

At the end of the day, Lincoln looks strong, both due to her own firepower and the lack thereof for her competition. But again, she's seen the numbers. She's collected the ammo monies. What does a nervous Blanche Lincoln mean? It means that there's something out there that isn't exactly clear that's making her at least anxious, if not nervous.

Who knows, though. Could just be an abundance of caution.