Thursday, February 5, 2009
Electoral College? Is that a technical school or somthin'?
You'd be hard pressed to find a lot of people 'round these parts who can give you a clear cut definition of what the Electoral College is, and it's only once in a blue moon — like the year 2000 — when the E.C. actually does anything worth mentioning.
But when it is noteworthy, get out of the way because mass hysteria and rioting are about to ensue.
People are all riled up about it now that a legislative committee in Arkansas has endorsed a bill to do away with the pesky Electoral College once and for all, joining the ranks of legislative powerhouses Maryland, Illinois, New Jersey, Old Jersey and last but not least, Hawaii (!!!) who have passed similar bills.
The fuss is that people think that their vote is watered-down or doesn't count for as much, just because their vote seems to evaporate if — gasp! — their candidate doesn't win. It might appear to water down and somewhat encumber the democratic the process a little, but it is a necessary insular.
I'm reminded of a quote I heard from my friend and yours John Brummett, who was quoting Benjamin Franklin. "Democracy is akin to two wolves and a sheep sitting down at a table to discuss what's for dinner," or something close to that. This means that direct democracy doesn't adequately represent the interests of all of the parties involved, namely the minority.
The Electoral College doesn't offer that either, but it's at least closer than direct democracy. What we live in is a Democratic Republic. We elect representatives that cater to our specific constituent needs rather than just let the government en masse deal with our focused nit-picking.
We have three whole levels of representation — a bicameral legislature with a House and Senate, and then an executive branch with a president — all with different constituency populations and term-lengths and limits to ensure that your very needs are heard and guarded with the utmost care.
Now this Electoral College was put in place to safe guard that representation, although it's a bit more difficult to see in this ever-shrinking community that we live in called the United States. Surely one can recognize that there are larger cities and smaller cities within bigger states and smaller states. There are very different needs for these different geographic regions of population.
Maybe a large city like New Orleans is all about raising taxes to fund levies, while a small city in Montana wants to lower taxes so people will have more money to purchase firewood to keep warm. Different constituencies, different needs from their government. I'm sure you can think of better examples.
The founders were rightly concerned that the race for the Presidency could be skewed by a candidate focusing on one demographic over another by focusing on larger populations; hey, more hands to shake with less ground to cover. The Electoral College attempts to ensure that some of the hands in some of the smaller states at least get a fair shake. The needs of New York or Los Angeles aren't the same as, say, Goose Knuckle, Mississippi, or any other remote and odd-named locale in the middle of the country.
The Electoral College is there to make sure that the trailer-dweller from rural Arkansas' voice can be heard through six votes from the College rather than hope that the Presidential candidate gets to his issue that could sway his single vote out of a billion.
Proponents of the elimination of the College make two pretty good points. One is that the globalization of the country has made the need to physically be on the ground in every state less of an imperative, that everyone's voice can be heard from the youtubes or the blogosphere or whatever the next communication fad will be.
They also argue that it doesn't matter, their voice is still insignificant. In 2008, Obama never set foot in Arkansas, or much anywhere else in the deep South, knowing it was long gone. In every election down the home stretch, certain states, like Pennsylvania or Ohio in 2008, are visited more frequently as battleground states.
Doing away with the Electoral College won't grant that these people will be better represented, just that their vote will be one of now hundreds of millions rather than just a couple million, as is the case in Arkansas. Oh yeah, that should help get your voice heard. Just increase the pool by a couple hundred million.
Those against the Electoral College also hang their hat on the 2000 election, where Gore won the popular vote (like in LA and NYC) and Bush won the electoral vote (more states like Bush than Gore).
Person to person, Gore should've won. But constituency to constituency, demographic need to demographic need? Bush won. Thinking about it in that context — and neglecting the...uh...unfavoribility of Dubya — makes the denial of direct democracy seem less treasonous and more American than initial instinct would lead one to believe.
People fear what they don't understand and unfortunately no one seems to grasp the benefits of the Electoral College. If it's gone, look for everything between LA and New York to have a tremendous drop in voting value.
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The major shortcoming of the current system of electing the President is that presidential candidates concentrate their attention on a handful of closely divided "battleground" states. 98% of the 2008 campaign events involving a presidential or vice-presidential candidate occurred in just 15 closely divided “battleground” states. Over half (57%) of the events were in just four states (Ohio, Florida, Pennsylvania and Virginia). Similarly, 98% of ad spending took place in these 15 “battleground” states. Similarly, in 2004, candidates concentrated over two-thirds of their money and campaign visits in five states and over 99% of their money in 16 states. Two-thirds of the states and people have been merely spectators to the presidential elections. Candidates have no reason to poll, visit, advertise, organize, campaign, or worry about the voter concerns in states where they are safely ahead or hopelessly behind. The reason for this is the winner-take-all rule enacted by 48 states, under which all of a state's electoral votes are awarded to the candidate who gets the most votes in each separate state.
ReplyDeleteAnother shortcoming of the current system is that a candidate can win the Presidency without winning the most popular votes nationwide. This has occurred in one of every 14 presidential elections.
In the past six decades, there have been six presidential elections in which a shift of a relatively small number of votes in one or two states would have elected (and, of course, in 2000, did elect) a presidential candidate who lost the popular vote nationwide.
The small states are the most disadvantaged of all under the current system of electing the President. Political clout comes from being a closely divided battleground state, not the two-vote bonus.
ReplyDeleteSmall states are almost invariably non-competitive in presidential election. Only 1 of the 13 smallest states are battleground states (and only 5 of the 25 smallest states are battlegrounds).
Of the 13 smallest states, Idaho, Montana, Wyoming, North Dakota, South Dakota, and Alaska regularly vote Republican, and Rhode Island, Delaware, Hawaii, Vermont, Maine, and DC regularly vote Democratic. These 12 states together contain 11 million people. Because of the two electoral-vote bonus that each state receives, the 12 non-competitive small states have 40 electoral votes. However, the two-vote bonus is an entirely illusory advantage to the small states. Ohio has 11 million people and has "only" 20 electoral votes. As we all know, the 11 million people in Ohio are the center of attention in presidential campaigns, while the 11 million people in the 12 non-competitive small states are utterly irrelevant. Nationwide election of the President would make each of the voters in the 12 smallest states as important as an Ohio voter.
The fact that the bonus of two electoral votes is an illusory benefit to the small states has been widely recognized by the small states for some time. In 1966, Delaware led a group of 12 predominantly low-population states (North Dakota, South Dakota, Wyoming, Utah, Arkansas, Kansas, Oklahoma, Iowa, Kentucky, Florida, Pennsylvania) in suing New York in the U.S. Supreme Court, arguing that New York's use of the winner-take-all effectively disenfranchised voters in their states. The Court declined to hear the case (presumably because of the well-established constitutional provision that the manner of awarding electoral votes is exclusively a state decision). Ironically, defendant New York is no longer a battleground state (as it was in the 1960s) and today suffers the very same disenfranchisement as the 12 non-competitive low-population states. A vote in New York is, today, equal to a vote in Wyoming--both are equally worthless and irrelevant in presidential elections.
The concept of a national popular vote for President is far from being politically “radioactive” in small states, because the small states recognize they are the most disadvantaged group of states under the current system.
The National Popular Vote bill already has been approved by a total of seven state legislative chambers in small states, including one house in Maine and both houses in Hawaii, Rhode Island, and Vermont. It has been enacted by Hawaii.
When presidential candidates campaign to win the electoral votes of closely divided battleground states, such as in Ohio and Florida, the big cities in those battleground states do not receive all the attention, much less control the outcome. Cleveland and Miami certainly did not receive all the attention or control the outcome in Ohio and Florida in 2000 and 2004.
ReplyDeleteUnder a national popular vote, every vote is equally important politically. There is nothing special about a vote cast in a big city. When every vote is equal, candidates of both parties know that they must seek out voters in small, medium, and large towns throughout the state in order to win the state. A vote cast in a big city is no more valuable than a vote cast in a small town or rural area.
Another way to look at this is that there are approximately 300 million Americans. The population of the top five cities (New York, Los Angeles, Chicago, Houston and Philadelphia) is only 6% of the population of the United States and the population of the top 50 cities is only 19% of the population of the United States. Even if one makes the far-fetched assumption that a candidate won 100% of the votes in the nation’s top five cities, he would only have won 6% of the national vote.
Further evidence of the way a nationwide presidential campaign would be run comes from the way that national advertisers conduct nationwide sales campaigns. National advertisers seek out customers in small, medium, and large towns of every small, medium, and large state. National advertisers do not advertise only in big cities. Instead, they go after every single possible customer, regardless of where the customer is located. National advertisers do not write off Indiana or Illinois merely because their competitor has an 8% lead in sales in those states. And, a national advertiser with an 8%-edge over its competitor does not stop trying to make additional sales in Indiana or Illinois merely because they are in the lead.
National Popular Vote has nothing to do with whether the country has a "republican" form of government or is a "democracy."
ReplyDeleteA "republican" form of government means that the voters do not make laws themselves but, instead, delegate the job to periodically elected officials (Congressmen, Senators, and the President). The United States has a "republican" form of government regardless of whether popular votes for presidential electors are tallied at the state-level (as is currently the case in 48 states) or at district-level (as is currently the case in Maine and Nebraska) or at 50-state-level (as under the National Popular Vote bill).
If a "republican" form of government means that the presidential electors exercise independent judgment (like the College of Cardinals that elects the Pope), we have had a "democratic" method of electing presidential electors since 1796 (the first contested presidential election). Ever since 1796, presidential candidates have been nominated by a central authority (originally congressional caucuses, and now party conventions) and electors are reliable rubberstamps for the voters of the district or state that elected them.
80% OF ARKANSAS VOTERS SUPPORT A NATIONAL POPULAR VOTE FOR PRESIDENT IN DECEMBER 2008 POLL
ReplyDeleteA survey of 800 Arkansas voters conducted on December 15-16, 2008 showed 80% overall support for a national popular vote for President.
Support was 88% among Democrats, 71% among Republicans, and 79% among independents.
By age, support was 89% among 18-29 year olds, 76% among 30-45 year olds, 80% among 46-65 year olds, and 80% for those older than 65.
By gender, support was 88% among women and 71% among men.
By race, support was 81% among whites (representing 80% of respondents), 80% among African-Americans (representing 16% of respondents), and 68% among Others (representing 4% of respondents).
see http://www.NationalPopularVote.com
This is obviously spam from National Popular Vote. All of their arguments are well covered in my post. No really, look it up.
ReplyDeleteAs for people "wanting" the E.C. dissolved, people don't understand it. Maybe if you explained it in the first place — like I did — people could understand and then make a decision for themselves.
I can't believe I got spammed. I feel violated. Plus every single one of their points is completely shut down. Have I mentioned that yet? If you've got an hour or are hammered silly, feel free to read it.
I stopped after the first paragraph.
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