Is Sotomayor a Snag for Lincoln? Meh.

I mean, I'm scouring the traditional media outlets, scrounging around for a piece of noteworthy news I might be able to expound upon, but everyone's still jawing about Sotomayor. Doesn't everyone know that I already wrote about that lady? Harumph!

Just kidding. I'll bite.

Yesterday I was on the old talky radio box with Bureau columnist and fitness guru David J. Sanders, just talking shop, with the news of the day of course being Sotomayor's nomination.

Sanders, and the encompassing Arkansas blogosphere, saw before I did that the Senators Lincoln and Pryor are going to have some role in her vetting process, be it small or large, as they're in the Senate body.

Lincoln has an especially large role in that her every move is gauged by politicos and analysts from the Natural State, always in measurements of her electability (or, by some, defeatability). And I mean every move. Not to be taken without a huge grain of salt, but nearly all of her opponents will say that any give move is a 'clear cut example' of how she's out of touch with Arkansas, while all of her supporters will claim the opposite. As the professor once said, that's the nature of politics.

The Arkansas Project has a good explanation of this by Cory Allen Cox, written when Justice "Yawn" Souter announced his retirement for the love of Vermontian syrup and shuffleboard. It spells out Lincoln's obvious perils quite well, although Cox lacks Kinkade's obvious knack for captivating his audience.

On the air, I said that I didn't think that her confirming a nominee would be such a dagger to her cause, namely because she has plenty of other issues that are currently being held to her feet like flame. The problem for her is that every issue for her is magnified, and usually blown out of proportion.

After consideration following Sanders' and my conversation, I'm still not convinced that her confirming Sotomayor will make or break her election prospects. First off, nobody knows who Sotomayor is, well, nobody in Arkansas, anyway. Very few people had every heard of such a person, and likely those who had already have their minds and focuses made on Mrs. Lincoln.

While she has a questionable issue about her feelings while trying cases, experts are mainly discussing her ambiguity. She seems to be centrist, but not so much that it disguises her liberal nature. Obama wouldn't pick someone who wasn't, but Bush I and all of those Republicans who confirmed her years ago, even if only flippantly reviewing her nomination, wouldn't have let someone too far in left field play ball.

Nationally, Republicans will likely heed the words of Press Sec. Gibbs and Sen. Chuck Shumer, who's guiding her through the vetting process, and tread lightly, fearing a Hispanic backlash that they would surely rue, which would be devastating as they are attempting to woo that demographic back to the GOP.

The heat won't really be on anyone but Lincoln, but the heat's already on her and has been on her. She'll vote for Sotomayor. Again, I doubt it will make or break Lincoln's rerere-election bid. That's not to say that this, coupled with maybe a flip-flop on her latest card check position, then upsetting some pro-gun types, wouldn't add fuel to the fire and put her in greater danger.

However, she's been on several tours as of late to restore her conservative and "in touch" credentials and I doubt would make such a costly move in her campaign. Plus, right now it doesn't matter. Nobody's up against her thus far. Let's see if someone, say, Gilberto Baker has anything to say about it. I wonder if it will be a sticking point with any would-be candidate.

I'm going to be a guest with Sanders again tomorrow (Thursday) afternoon, not sure when exactly though (UPDATE: At three in the afternoon, after Senate-maybe Curtis "Blog?" Coleman). If you like listening to old timey radio, give an ear, or hey! phone in, 501-433-0092. It'd be riveting conversation I'm sure.