Lincoln a Definite 'No' on Card Check

I'm going to say on the front end that this is merely hearsay, and no one will confirm such a statement, but I'll go ahead and weigh in on this EFCA bit again.

Sen. Blanche Lincoln, D-Ark., is going to be a definite 'no' on Card Check.

So says my Agent in Washington, who works in the Senate and is often around the Senate halls. He just so happens to be friendly with some of Blanche's people, and through their conversations and eavesdropping, he gave me the scoop.

Of course, it's not anything that you haven't likely heard from others around the state, but I thought hearing it from sources in the bowels of the Senate might be useful.

The Agent says that their office is indeed worried about 2010. They ought to be, as she's drawing opposition in the wee hours of 2009. They should also be confident. Blanche is powerful — she has been a vocal proponent for rural Arkansas, and no amount of union support by her party should bring her down, although it could possibly drive her to the brink thereof.

My friend also says that the Democratic Party is well-aware of Lincoln's intentions to go against the party agenda, and vote against Card Check, They say she just can't come out and definitively say it yet; They have to finesse it.

But the writing is on the wall. Lincoln can't go with this, not in Arkansas. The state is so pro-business that any one running against her would have plenty of ammunition against her. This could make a weak candidate a strong candidate; What would that make an already strong candidate?

You got it, and the Democrats know that calculus as well. She probably wouldn't lose her seat, but why even risk it?

For Lincoln, as I've said before, her thought should be to make sure you get re-elected, then make amends with the Party. But don't think that Lincoln is the only one who understand that. The Democrats need her in 2010, as well.

Those 60 votes are going to be tough to come by. It's hard enough right now, even with the addition of Al Franken, D-Minney-SO-dahdontchaknoe. With the party sort of fracturing from the inside, according to Politico, anyway, losing seats in relatively purple states like Arkansas isn't the way they want to go.

She gets it. They get it. We get it. It'd put Lincoln in an awful pickle to have to go for this Card Check in her state. The Party will give her a pass. They need her in office next year, and can possibly get it without her. If not, no big deal, I say. It's just paying back the Unions for their support. If you can't muster those votes with an honest effort, well, that's just the way it goes sometimes.

What will really be interesting will be to see how her opponents will position themselves without such a pivotal talking point in their pocket. Defeating Lincoln would be hard enough with her impugning herself with an affirmative for Card Check.

Without that, where will a Republican like, say, Tim Griffin, attack?

UPDATE: Politico says good ole Blanchey is one of two Senators upon which the entirety of the EFCA vote hinges. Makes it more interesting, but frankly, it doesn't change anything. Arkansas doesn't care about what everyone else thinks. They don't care for unions. Done-zo.