Arkansas Relevance! Huzzah!

Arkansas is like the tiny rural town of America. It's small, relatively isolated, and pretty much keeps to itself, save for a President and Presidential candidate here, a sex scandal that reinforces negative stereotypes there, and the world just keeps spinning.

It gets six votes in the Electoral College, and only four congressmen in the House. As far as the movers and shakers of the world go, very few have ever called Arkansas home. It's not a bad thing, or a good thing. It's just a fact.

But the political anomaly that is the Arkansas Democrat has thrust Arkansas into a new state of prominence, importance, and relevance.

Arkansas is nominally Democratic in the way that a four-hoofed mammal with antlers is a duck. You can call it a duck all you want, but the it walks, talks and acts very much like a deer. The Arkansas Democrat, with a few notable exceptions, walks, talks, and acts more like a Republican than many Republicans do. In fact, I'd wager that a vast majority of these Arkie Donkeys, placed anywhere that's more urban and more northern that Arkansas — which by sheer demography and geography, is a lot of places — and they'd be wearing their straw hats and talking about how awesome Newt Gingrich is.

This makes them, on the political spectrum, moderate Democrats. All of the state's Congressional Delegation qualify under this moniker, save for, of course, Rep. John "I'm So Ronery" Boozman, the state's only Republican.

As I've said before, Arkansas' moderate Democrats have been a showcase in the tension between moderates that some Arkansans can actually get behind and the far-Left wings of the Democratic Party, who have achieved sweeping majorities over the last three years and are running the show. Like I said, you've got a small minority in one group, and a bigger majority comprising of two groups who are splitting apart at the seams.

What does this mean for Arkansas? Swing votes...and attention.

Arkansas' delegates now have to think about what they're going to wear before they walk out that door. Comb that hair, Ross! Shine them boots, Berry. Theme-ties again, Snyder? Smile big, Blanche!...not that big. Marky Mark, bring wet naps. Since President Obama took office in January, You've seen Arkansas' delegates mentioned on matters such as climate change, health care, and you're going to see them on issues such as immigration, gay issues, and whatever else comes up.

They represent the final totals on the Majority Whip's role call. Not only that, but each delegate has been going at it for awhile, each one having been re-elected several times back to their current position. That means seniority and authority, as shown in Mike Ross' case of being able to slam the breaks on health care reform, putting it back to September, and Sen. Lincoln's role in the Senate Finance Committee, which is seeing health care, and will see climate change and a number of other important issues.

And it will continue to be this way, as more and more issues pile up that pit the conservative constituency of Arkansas against the more liberal tendencies of the Democratic Leadership. Hey, they're in charge. That's their prerogative.

But there might be consequences in, say, 2010. Currently, all of the delegates should be pretty comfortable. They're all household names and, like I said earlier, have been re-elected numerous times. But with polling places (of the Democratic persuasion no less) saying that Arkansas is the most likely state to see a large shift from Democratic to Republican in 2010, it's easy to see why these guys might be shedding the spotlight and awkwardly pulling at their collars.

The best example of this is (sigh) Sen. Lincoln. I feel like I'm joining in on beating a dead horse, but the fact of the matter is she's a big target that a lot of people are seeing as vulnerable. Every step she takes that sides more with the President — who is very unpopular in Arkansas — that will be translated and transmitted as a step away from Arkansas' values, even if, in truth, those two steps might be compatible. That's what she'll argue anyway, but my and most everyone else's guess is that those arguments, no matter how true, will fall on deaf, if not actively non-acquiescent, ears.

Anyway, for the average Arkansan, all this means is that you'll be able to go to a national news source to hear about your representation at home. And maybe be able to recognize the person who's actually doing that representing.

Health Care Reform: Dead

It pains me to say this, but I think it's true. Hope it's not, because Republicans and Democrats alike agree we need it.

I think the much-ballyhooed health care reform plan is dead. Kaput. No more.

Well, most of it anyway, the part that would radically change health care. There may be a concurrent resolution or something nifty and feel-goody that gets passed to mark the achievement of doing some fine talking, but I don't think that anything is going to pass the muster.

Too much sausage is getting made on either side. It's hurting the quality of the meat, the meat of course being the reform itself.

Each side can and will blame the other. They'd both be right. Some stubborn folks on not just each end of the aisle but stubbornness on each pew of each aisle has lead to a gridlock, despite some, I'm sure, wonderful progress on those respective side.

It came to me reading the Washington Post this morning. Senate Democrats are making noise about the lack of a public option in the finalized bill. This sent everyone in a position to get to their battle stations.

Speaker Pelosi says there will be a public option in any bill the House approves. Blue Dogs like Arkansas' Mike Ross say they won't sign anything with a public option, losing 50 or more crucial votes. 100+ members of the Progressive caucus and others say they won't vote for it if there's a lack of one. Gridlock.

The Senate Finance Committee is the last frontier of the health care bill. They are struggling admirably to arrive at a bipartisan conclusion. This will — according to Sen. Blanche Lincoln's numerous speeches at home — not include the public option, since it doesn't prove to be a "viable plan." Now Senate Democrats are ready to stand in the way of the 20 months of compromise that's been hashed out in the Finance Committee. Stalemate.

Lincoln, Ross, the President, and others have often clamored that the scary option in health care reform is "to do nothing." They certainly make a strong argument, with nearly 20 percent of every dollar Americans spend going toward health care, health care costs rising at nearly six times the rate of income, and the unsustainability of that path. Even Republicans confess that the system is flawed and outdated, if not completely broken.

But with each group at the ready to bring this bipartisan thing to a screeching halt — now, with no chance of a partisan bill being rammed through either — I think it's dead.

That's just me though. Maybe we'll try it again in another 15 years.

Marketing Politically

Just a stray thought of which I haven't been able to rid myself over the weekend and into miserable Monday: What is politics if not marketing?

While Aristotle would say that political thought and reflection are the highest acts of natural causes that a man can make, what difference does any of the diplomacy make if not for the sake of re-election?

Re-election, being the lifeblood of any political viability, is both vice and virtue to politics, or so it seems to me. That's why we have different levels within our legislative bodies of representation: House has two years, President gets four, and the Senate gets six years to make their case for another term.

We obviously want some level of our government privy to the whims of the masses, and some to be insulated from those wants. That sensitivity binds politicians to their election campaigns; the most sensitive, the victor.

Marketing strategists and political operatives don't seem all that different, it's just a different strategy. You brand the face, name, phrase of your candidate, or some combination of all three, to get people who are uninterested interested. You enter the lexicon, thrusting your campaign — yes, both political and marketing campaigns — into the vernacular of those you wish to influence.

You saw a lot of that with the election of President Obama. He had a big, grinning face, unique, but not-difficult-to-pronounce-name, and hung a five letter banner "CHANGE" everywhere he went, first written by hand from loyal supporters in Iowa, to pressed on designer T-shirts. The iconic, three-color picture of the President is what will be remembered most from his campaign. It encompassed all three.

Senators, like Arkansas' Blanche Lincoln, are having to walk a tight rope toward re-elected prosperity, an arduous and difficult gait. She's obviously got her hands tied in some kind of restraint by those who will or will not elect her for a third consecutive term to the Senate.

While her policies are complex, her record long, and her biography well-documented, look for her opposition to use short sentences, if not monosyllabic phrases. She helped them out by dubbing a sympathetic constituency "un-American," but that will be a throw away.

I'm not really looking for an answer, it's just been buzzing around in my head. For all of the high-minded thought that's going into such policies as health care, climate changes, and, oh yeah, those two wars we're fighting, I'm just hoping that politics — the important part of it anyway — is more than picking between Reebok and Nike.

Random thought for the day. You're welcome.

Lincoln: Up Yours, Vocal & Active Constituency!

I would have loved to have seen the look on Steve Patterson's face around 11 in the morning, as Sen. Lincoln was wrapping up her press conference with Arkansas reporters on Thursday.

Patterson, Lincoln's campaign manager who is most certainly gearing up for a tough re-election bid, was probably sitting in his office in Little Rock, or maybe even her office in D.C. Depending on if or how big his breakfast was, maybe he was thinking about lunch.

Should I go to Wendy's again? he might've been pondering. But I just went there yesterday...but nobody saw me. Maybe I can go there again...I did almost get the spicy chicken. Maybe I'll get that today. But those square patties are-...

Then he heard that buzz word, that word that says so much while spelling so little: un-American. He could've sworn he had heard it from his client, Sen. Lincoln's mouth.

She must be talking about how dumb and polarizing and really, really dumb it was to use that word to discuss a politically biased stance, he probably mused to himself. Man, that Bush guy really helped us out by doing that.

Then his expression probably became a little more grim, aspirations of a delicious chicken sandwich, Frosty, and routine incumbent election quickly evaporating into the vapors. Had Sen. Lincoln had just called several hundred of her vocal constituency "un-American?"

Hang on, Steve might've thought to himself, in that low, booming voice that I hope is his inner-thought voice as well, Blanche is smarter than this. He'd be right, too. Sen. Lincoln frustrates many conservatives with her ability to tread politically difficult matters with somewhat ease, if not persistent thoroughness. Being a Democrat, her party and those running it are decidedly more liberal than probably she is, but most certainly more so than her constituency is. She has threaded the needle, as they say, and done so quite well with such a large bull's eye on her back.

She may weave 27 minute answers to some questions, but she has her points, sticks to them, and rarely gives much away.

Oh, she couldn't have done that, Steve, time to lay off the crazy pills, this isn't a Styx and Kansas concert, laughed Patterson to himself.

“It’s so sad, because it’s diminishing to the process, it’s diminishing to our outcome...I think it’s sad that they choose to do that," he recalled her saying. "I think it’s un-American and disrespectful."

I am going to throw up all over these tasseled loafers, a now pale and mortified Arkansas campaign manager may have thought to himself.

She had. She had called her some of her most vocal constituency "un-American." Not only are they the most vocal, but judging by their likely political leanings, they're a constituency that would be most offended by being branded as "un-American." They're vocal, they're on the move, they're willing to campaign against her now for no wage or interest other than their own: They will be a terrible nightmare for business, thought Patterson.

Some of these nuts are running against her already, Patterson might have pondered, noting the growing roster of Ricky Randoms, many of whom nobody outside their small circle of friends and relatives would know, recognize, or lend any help to. All of those guys just got a little more credibility, the now-worry-wrought Steve Patterson might have thought.

Maybe it won't be that bad, he might have scrambled in his head, trying to weave his way around the situation. He'd be fooling himself. While it's certainly no "that Jew" statement, it certainly is self-stubbing of the toe. Sen. Lincoln tripped up, insulted her constituency (much in the same way that Curtis Coleman chap did, eh?), and now looks like she's going to have to eat those words in every debate and campaign ad.

Will it cost her the election? Doubtful, as all of her challengers are those people who are best defined as 'ambiguous.' But someone well-funded with a compelling narrative that's relatively well-liked? It could be a loud speed bump, and we're only just in August of 2009...There's time, Patterson might have concluded, both optimistically at the time to dig herself out of the hole presented here and in her polling numbers and pessimistically at the time for a real candidate to emerge.

What in the name of holy flying horse snot is going on with this campaign?! Patterson thought madly to himself, the only visible sign of his rising anger a small twitch of his left eyelid. You know what, I hate this freaking job! This has got to be the most worthless, hapless, hopeless re-election campaign I've ever been a part of. I wake up every morning, look at those poll numbers, and curl up in a little fetal ball and cry my eyes out, because this is just a mess, Patterson might have mused as his face became more red and his knuckles became more white. Two terms? TWO TERMS?! What kind of amateur, rookie, bush-league, open-mic night at the Apollo is this Senate race supposed to be, huh? Now fuming in his own mind, I swear to God Almighty I am going to go off on a Clark-Griswold-esque rant that may or may not involve me punching numerous interns and aides in the face and thrusting my head in the toilet until the someone drags me out and puts me in the dumpster out back with the rest of the toiletries and all the health care reform placards and pickets!

He paused. Inhaled.

"Uh...Blanche? I think we should issue a retraction."

What In God's Name Is This 'Tim Griffin' Critter Up To?

It broke over my buddy David Sanders' tweets last week. He said the former-Senate-maybe, and former U.S. Attorney Tim Griffin had just got back from D.C. and was doing some thinking about running against that Mike "Shelmet" Ross, who currently happens to be probably one of the more powerful Congressmen in House right now.

The ever-sneaky Jason Tolbert picked up on an exchange between Jake Trapper of ABC, in which it seems Trapper had been picking up what Griffin had been laying down.

Griffin, raised in Magnolia but currently wheeling and dealing in Little Rock, says he's hearing from a lot of unhappy people in the fourth district. Being the benevolent and heroic leader of hope, charity and mercy he is, Griffin seems to be pondering a Crusade to alleviate the sorrows and famine of the 4th district against Mike Longshanks Ross.

Riiight.

Not saying anything about Ross or Griffin or anything like that, but let's take a gander at some facts and some history, shall we?

Mike Ross' Stick is Huge: President Obama, who every Arkansas delegate with whom I have spoken says is more liberal than themselves, is mighty popular and is aiming for some of that reform. Mike "Monkeywrench" Ross, leading the Blue Dog Democrats in the House on Health Care, said "Halt" and it was so.

The national media chalked it up to Harry Potterisms, like The Congressman Who Lived after standing up to Obama, not that Obama is anything like He-Who-Must-Not-Be-Named, but you know what I mean. Obama's powerful.

Needless to say, in a state that overwhelming shot Obama down at the polls, any standing up to Obama, over matters large and small, is duly noted by the voters. This isn't even the first time Ross has gone on record against the progressive agenda in the Legislative Branch. Ross made a lot of now forgotten noise over cap-and-trade legislation that went through his committee earlier in the session, voting squarely no, and telling me personally, that he thought the President, in this case, was and is wrong.

Not to mention that all of Arkansas' congressional delegates are comfortable and cozily ensconced in their respective district. Ross is sitting pretty, and I think a lot of people are aware of that.

Tim Griffin? Who?: Tim Griffin as a candidate is puzzling to me. He obviously is well-connected to a bevy of deep-pocketed friends in D.C. and elsewhere, which is absolutely clutch in a national election. But outside of that, as well as some conservative credentials that are also key in Arkansas, I'm not sure that Tim Griffin couldn't kick me in the face while holding hands with my mother without me going, "Who was that guy?"

In an election, you need a name, too. I will give him this, outside of being a U.S. Attorney, he has done pretty well getting his name out there, primarily by doing some saber-rattling about Blanche Lincoln. In political circles, people know Tim Griffin. But the walls can be pretty thick and insulated in those political circles. I'm not sure that the general public is too aware of his presence.

But what am I saying? He's been hearing from the people of the fourth.

Tim Griffin? No, really, who is he? What's he doing here?: Getting back to not so much about who Griffin is, but what exactly he's doing. As far as I know, Tim Griffin has no elected experience. He's a former opposition researcher, political strategist, and U.S. Attorney. I don't think any of those positions have been put to votes.

But like I said earlier, his noteworthy past thus far has been talking down Blanche Lincoln since December. He was the first and definitely the most vocal potential opponent against the Democratic Senator, whose tepid polling numbers are spelling a potentially tough re-election.

But as the months wore on, people like Kim Hendren jumping in the race before self-detonating, and a litany of others throwing their hat into the ring, with nary a peep from Griffin.

Many suspect that he had no real intention of running against Lincoln. Rather, he just wanted to keep her in check, make sure she voted conservatively on issues like card check, and basically keep her on the defensive by moving her re-election campaign up about six or eight months.

I'm not saying it's the case now, I'm just saying it might be, that Griffin & Co. is doing the same with Ross: They recognize a long-time and loyal Democrat, Ross, with a propensity to vote conservatively, and are aiming a making sure he stays that way, nervous of a Republican backlash in conservative Arkansas.

Griffin, who certainly has a political background, may lack the political C.V. to stand up against a strong candidate like Ross. But maybe that's not what he wants to do in the first place.

At the very least, he'll need a much more dominate follicle arrangement to compete with Ross.

What Do All of These Ricky Randoms Mean For Lincoln?

(Ed. Note — After a week sabbatical and then a case of the violently-ill Mondays, the UFW is back for its regular installments. I know you were missing me. I missed you, too.)

Monday morning, I noticed a blog post by Jason "Too Much Time" Tolbert that a retired Army colonel, Conrad Reynolds, was throwing his name into the hat in the ever-shifting, always awkward roster of those Republicans vying for a shot to beat Blanche Lincoln, the Democratic incumbent, in the U.S. Senate.

Tom Cox, the Tea-Bagger. Curtis Coleman, ex-Huckster/Safe Foods mogul. Fred Ramey, a businessman who runs a business. A Chicagoan with Arkansan roots named Chris Bequette is being rumored. Conrad Reynolds. Moneyman French Hill was also rumored, but he seems to be warming up to a Congressional run against Vic Snyder. Kim Hendren, oy vey. Gilbert Baker seems to have quietly bowed out, while Tim Griffin seems to have been playing opossum the whole time.

With the slight exception of a state Senator or two — one of which only made the kind of national headlines that candidates don't want — none of these names are household ones. I'm sure they've got fund raising ability, and I'm sure that in their relative communities, they're pretty popular fellows. But the moniker 'Ricky Random' can be applied to most if not all of them.

Maybe it makes sense for a populist state like Arkansas to have a host of willing contenders ready to throw their names, reputations and families into the ring. A litany of everymen, lining up like a group of modern-day Cincinnatus-es, it's almost compelling.

Emphasis on almost. Compelling doesn't bring home the bacon. My point man on the power of money, David Kinky Kinkade, had a good piece today on the Arkansas Project about how much real dollars some of these candidates are going to have to raise to compete with Lincoln. Like Kinkade, I'll punt on some of the chances these suitors have. Sure, they've got a shot, they're running after all, buuuuuut...

What does this mean for Lincoln exactly? A few points, if I may:

People say she's vulnerable: This isn't news. Polls have been out for a few months now, revealing tepid numbers for anyone, let alone a two-term incumbent. Lincoln has been in the dastardly pickle to pick sides on issues ranging from card check, to health care, and soon, I'd wager, energy, between her more-conservative state and her more-liberal party. This perceived vulnerability allows people who would regularly not consider running to think, hey, maybe I've got a shot.

The field says she isn't vulnerable: What this should also show is that perhaps she isn't so vulnerable after all. You'd think that, if she were after all, so weak and unable to mount a good enough campaign to make up for those meager numbers, that someone of note — like a Mike Huckabee, for instance, or someone in that same vein — would swoop in to take advantage. Elections naturally favor incumbents. Lincoln is a shrewd politician, who wisely straddles the fence on many issues, much to the chagrin of her opponents. She's obviously got not only plenty of people, but plenty of well-off people who aren't afraid to scrawl out a check, again, referencing Kinkade's mention of her $11 million pace she has already set.

More to come: It's still very early in this race, despite what the 24-hour hungry news cycle would let you think. Think about it a couple of months ago. You had Tim Griffin and Gilbert Baker making the most noise. Then Kim Hendren loudly barged into the discussion. Then he loudly pushed the eject button out of the discussion. Names are floating in and out of the conversation in the vacuum of actual news on the subject. There will be more names, some less credible than the roster assembled, others more so.

Like this Tom Cotton guy Sanders opined about. He's not a household name by any means, but he seems to have some pretty big time credentials. Harvard Law grad leading soldiers into battle? Brains and brawn! He's just one of the names I've heard in the ether, and frankly, one that I think, if he is as well-connected as many are claiming he is, has a decent shot in a runoff.

That's pretty much it. Is this the common Arkansan rising up against Lincoln? I doubt it; many Arkansans don't care enough to vote, let alone run. But it should mean that, despite the Ricky Randoms assembled thus far, we should be in for a barn-burner in 2010. Or not! See what I did there?

Lincoln's a Cool Customer on Health Care

Sen. Blanche Lincoln and I have done our fair share of conversating over the past few months. From card check to energy reform and in between, the Senator has always been good to call me back for an interview, and we've had many.

The headliner as of late, as you already well know, is what are we going to do about health care. Lincoln sits on the ever-powerful Senate finance committee that will be responsible for footing the bill, a bill that many are estimating is mighty steep, at over $1 trillion.

That's no chump change for anyone.

Lincoln has stated that she has no definitive stance on the issue, only the vague, tepid response that she is for "whatever it is that works," fulfilling all of the goals for all of the problems that there are or may be in the health care arena. That's a rather tall order.

So you can understand how ambitious it must be for her to say that she expects a health care bill next week, as everyone returns from the July 4th recess. To go from having no preference whatsoever, as she stated to me several times is her position, on a specific position — be it a public option, co-op, or any other option — to having some meat on the table will surely be something.

Actually, what it shows is that beneath the tame surface, there is a frenzy of activity in the legislative waters on health care. But with all of her weight being shifted equally, we have no idea how she'll land.

My guess — again, guess, mind you — is that we'll be presented with something remarkably similar if not identical to the public option proposed by President Obama, only reworded to fix the well-publicized collective aversion to the socialist-sounding moniker of "public option." I think Obama, a former Senator, will be able to make sure his goal is taken care of with a small, 100-person room full of his former colleagues, which as of yesterday, also happens to be a supermajority.

Cap-and-trade, a divisive bill that split the Democratic party down a rural fence, passed in the House, in no small part due to Obama's backing. It will die in the Senate, but the message is still clear.

Like Arkansas Gov. Mike Beebe during the past legislative session, I think President Obama could be riding his popularity to the bank, nearly sweeping all of his legislative agenda points, any one of which would have been remarkable, but all of them? That's big time.

That's Senator Franken To You

My fellow Americans, our long national nightmare is over.

Al Franken, the former SNL Funnyman, has won the U.S. Senate race in Minnesota, with his decidedly unfunny opponent, Norm Coleman conceding defeat.

Way to go guys. Only took you eight months. Healthy children have been conceived and born in that time, albeit prematurely.

For Republicans, this is yet another in a long line of kicks to gaping hole that used to be their gut. Not only does their Doomsday Theory of 60 seats in the Senate being controlled by Democrats inch closer to reality, but simply speaking, they threw the pocketbook at this problem, spending over a million bones in the last three months.

I've only met handful of people from Minnesota, and none of them are worth a million dollars.

That's not to say that Democrats didn't put a lot into soon-to-be Senator Franken's campaign either. Franken is going to have an even greater impetus to achieve in his inaugural term. He will be heavily scrutinized by his opponents, but also the independents in the Land of 10,000 Metaphorical Lakes.

I'm very interested to see how Franken fares, regardless of his political leanings. Democrats can recognize good, hard work from Republicans and vice versa. Independents don't care about that stuff anyway. Franken should have no problem being a good speaker, but let's see if he is persuasive. Or at least worth the trouble of letting Minnesota go eight months without being represented by two Senators.

Even Arkansas has that.

Speaking of the Natural State, the local angle could be that now Sens. Lincoln and Pryor, moderate, rural Democrats, will have more pressure on them than they had when Democrats lacked the filibuster-ending 60 votes. Every Democratic vote will now be crucial. Expect those who are trying to temper the more liberal-inclinations of the party for the sake of their political lives — like Lincoln, a Democrat up for re-election in 2010 in conservative Arkansas — to feel more heat.

Today, Lincoln and Pryor both professed their reservations for the House-approved Cap-and-Trade bill. While it will be much more difficult to achieve in the Senate, you can tell by the ruckus in the House that it's an important Democratic issue. And if President Obama is going to phone lil ole Rep. Mike Ross, D-Pig's Knuckle, and try to get him to vote for such legislation, one has to believe that for Obama-issues, Pryor and Lincoln will get Obama-calls too.

I'm looking forward to hearing Franken's first floor speech. And I'll be watching for Pryor and Lincoln's reactions.

Hat and Swap — Cap and Trade

Apparently these legislative types in Washington didn't get the memo that I was leaving work early to book it to St. Louis on Friday afternoon. They had the audacity to make landmark decisions while I was away from my post. For shame!

As you likely heard, the U.S. House passed the U.S. Clean Energy and Security Act, also known as a variant of cap-and-trade, by a skimpy margin, 219-212. With a name like 'Clean Energy and Security' who could vote against this bill? Turns out a lot of people, and most of the Arkansas' congressional delegation.

Republicans dubbed this a "cap-and-tax" bill, and being that it was written by the likes of representatives from California (gasp!) and Massachusetts (fie!), were nearly unanimous in their opposition to the bill. The story was the schism between Democrats, rural and otherwise.

Rural folk are against cap-and-trade. The business of agriculture runs on gasoline fumes. The expenses, while a mild irritant for John and Jane Q. Automobile Driver, would be devastating for the farming industry, and could have a negative ripple effect (such as a rise in the imports of food and cloth), say opponents.

Subsequently, rural Democrats balked, leading to the squeaker vote. I spoke with several delegates who had "great concerns" over how this would effect the biggest business in Arkansas, which is of course, agriculture. There were references from all to "importing food and cloth like we import oil," all of which were negative references.

We can all see how the votes went down for our delegates, plain as day now. 75 percent were against it, with only one opting for it.

While the state's lone Republican, John Boozman, was surely against it, national media attention was given to the remaining delegates of our very Natural State. Mike Ross made some noise voting against the bill in committee. Marion Berry and Vic Snyder were the question marks.

Most speculated that Berry would follow Ross' example. In my discussions with Ross, he said that he plainly believed it to be a bad bill for Arkansas, so much so that when President Obama personally called him to support the bill, he say "Thanks, but no." Berry's district is just as if not more rural and agriculturally-based as Ross'.

If Berry and Snyder were the question marks, with the more 'urban' (as urban as an Arkansan can be) Snyder would have to have been considered the bigger wild card of the two. Snyder told me that he hadn't made a decision but that he indeed had concerns about the bill.

Those concerns were obviously alleviated. The decision itself is not necessarily remarkable. The congressman said that he was weighing the decision, understanding the potential difficulties for his agricultural constituency. One side obviously won out over the other.

The dissent on the other hand was slightly more remarkable. Sens. Pryor and Lincoln have not spoken favorably about the bill. I'm not sure exactly what their latest words on the matter have been on the matter, but cap-and-trade is expected to falter in the Senate, where urbanosity and rurality (words?) is spread more thinly between two Senators per each state.

Either way, a majority of Arkansas' congressional delegation believed that this bill was bad for Arkansas. The state Farm Bureau had come out against it, before and after amendments to accommodate rural economies were included. One delegate (Ross) was the rallying clarion for Blue Dogs against the bill.

What did Snyder see that the others did not?

Politics In Motion and Grains of Salt

Just when one Arkansas Republican Senate hopeful takes himself out by devouring his foot with an insensitive statement, another one puts on a bib and gets ready to chow down. Or was it?

This Curtis Coleman remark, the one about needing a visa and shots to go to southeast Arkansas, has caused a minor stir. I say minor because only one side is doing the stirring. That stirring is making the whole picture look like it's not just being stirred, but it's a-brewin'.

Its an excellent example of how everything viewed in the political light can be potentially beneficial and potentially hazardous. It just depends on which side one looks at it — and exploits it.

I have to admit the first I had heard about the statement was from the Democratic Party of Arkansas, decrying it. The Demozette certainly didn't think much of it, or otherwise they've gotten very bad about burying leads, which I doubt. The Party sent out an email calling it an insult and clamoring for an apology. At the time, I had nothing else to base that information off of, save for the statement itself, and the Democratic response.

So I called Coleman, and talked to him about it. He laughed the whole time, saying that it wasn't necessarily taken out of context, but was intended to denote a great metaphor than it was like a foreign land, traveling from one corner of the state to another. He says it certainly wasn't intended to refer to the southeast corner of the state as a disease-ridden third world country. He then went on about how long he lived in Southeast Arkansas, and how much family he had there, and how his first son was born there, and so on and so forth.

Stripped down: You have statement Y. You have political party, cause, affiliate, whatever X and political party, cause, affiliate, whatever Z. X is going to play Y to its own greatest benefit, same with Z. The variable X and Z are just that: variable, and in this case, to be taken with a large grain of salt.

Democrats, hoping to squash any semblance of a challenger from the GOP for their Sen. Blanche Lincoln, are going to make this sound like the worst thing that they can possibly make it out to be, hopefully derailing Coleman's maybe-campaign. "Outrage!" they cry, and begin to make inferences that maybe just aren't there.

Republicans — and one in particular, Coleman himself — will spin it the other way. A moderate spin would be to say that one who is offended by it, ought not be because that'd just be overly sensitive. The biggest spin, the path Coleman chose, was to say that it meant nothing but heartfelt and wonderful things, metaphors of diversity and such.

The truth is likely in the middle: It was probably not as insensitive as Democrats would let on, but it could be perceived as such, so Coleman probably shouldn't have said it. It's really as simple as that.

All we can do it look at the statements, the facts, and make our judgments. Whether or not someones wants others to agree with our judgments — which is the goals of all politics and especially political campaigns — is up to that deciding entity itself.

Hold the Phone: Lincoln 'Doesn't Favor' Co-Ops, 'Not Against' Public Option

"It's a complicated thing," Sen. Blanche Lincoln laughed while talking me over the phone Tuesday, after we discussed health care for about 30 minutes.

She's right. And the minutiae is excruciating.

As it's toward the end of an article about a study rather than the subject itself, a shift on Lincoln's stance in the health care debate might be buried. I reported last week that Lincoln favors a co-op rather than the public option proposed by the President.

I said it because that's what she had said. She said perhaps I misunderstood, rather, that she believed her colleagues would be more receptive and understand better the idea of co-ops, being that they are so prevalent already, with electric and housing co-ops and the like.

She doesn't prefer a co-op over a public option. Rather, she prefers what works.

"People have gotten too tied up in titles and don't focus on the goals," said Lincoln. "The key is to meet the goals," citing those goals as making sure that whatever it is is competitive, transparent, efficient, affordable, and provides an option of coverage for those who'd like to keep their insurance.

"Co-op? Sure. Public option? Sure. Fall back plan? Sure. State to state plan? Sure," said Lincoln.

Lincoln said that there are a number of different definitions for the term "public plan," some in which the government controls everything, and some of which that have varying degrees of government intervention therein.

What does a public option mean for Lincoln? She wouldn't say. Rather, she just made sure that she was clear on the matter: She's for whatever, as long as it gets those aforementioned goals attained.

Right now, nothing is on paper. There are proposals, there are prototypes being scrawled in closed door meetings. But there is no one clear plan, so far, that has been agreed upon. If that plan comes out, and it works, she'll be for it.

So for the record: Sen. Lincoln isn't for the co-op, but she's not against the co-op. She's not for the public option, whatever that is, but she's not against the public option either.

She's for whatever it is that works.

Who Competes with the Government? And Wins?

"I fought the law and the law won." -Sonny Curtis and the Crickets

I read in the New York Times over the weekend that President Obama is getting a little bit fed up with the rate at which health care legislation is getting taken care of, and even more concerned that some of the things he would prefer to be in the legislation might get left out.

One note toward the beginning stuck out in my mind. The article states that one of the primary notes Obama is concerned with making certain is in the bill is the government-option insurance plan that would compete with private companies.

During an interview several weeks ago with Blanche Lincoln, who has given many lines of press releases on the matter of health care in this session, said she would be in favor of such a government option. Basically, the program would give every one the same benefits as a Federal Employee, which everyone knows are just grand. But it would be an option if they so chose; If they've got a better plan, they'd be more than welcome to choose that.

In a lot of ways, it makes sense. Think of the United States Post Office, slugging it out with the likes of FedEx, UPS, DHS, a friend of mine proffered. There is a service that needs to be rendered, in this care, health insurance. In order to keep the other companies honest and not gouge, the government would directly compete with them in order to insure that the prices were fair and affordable.

It's basic economics. There's a demand. Competition is the backbone of free market functionality. If insurance companies are going to run their affairs like cartels, who minds the government being a thorn in their side, keeping them honest?

Still...

It'd be like playing against the home team. In a stadium they built. In a state they run in a country they regulate. The rules are all theirs, and can change any rule at any time for any advantage, with a simple vote by 600 people who work for that team.

Plus, I'm pretty sure the goal of business competition is to put the other guy out of business, which I hope isn't the goal of the U.S., unless that business is an illegal one.

I'm not a conspiracy theorist. We landed on the moon, the Holocaust happened, and Barack Obama is a legal U.S. Citizen and a Christian to boot. But giving the government free reign to compete against another business sounds trickier than the fruits might be worth.

I wrote awhile back about my slight aversion toward the new seat belt restrictions that passed through the Arkansas Legislature this year. My aversion was not that police officers are inherently racist and therefore it should be assumed they are going to pull over every African-American they see on the road. My hesitancy is that there will already be that suspicion, and rather than wind it further down the road, always having it assailed, it might be better to find another avenue.

Health care might be an issue that needs resolving post haste, I don't think there's anyone who believes the contrary, and that everything is a-okay right now. But I'm not sure that the possibility of the government under-cutting one business and then perhaps moving on to another is going to sit well with people.

Since I already spoke to one of them about it, I look forward to hearing about possible pros, cons, and maybe even alternatives from our delegates.

And Now For Our Feature Presentation

Well, Zachary was ill. And before that he was busy. And before that, he said that the next four sentences on his blog would be spoken in the third person. Zachary was right, and apologizes for the absence.

So, by my calculations I haven't posted in about a week. Pretty eventful, in those few days, I reckon. Let's do some quick hits, some "Stuff From Around...", or some of whatever Rutherford and Lance call it when they just post briefs and links. At least Kinkade branded his; The rest of us are screwed:

Jesus H. Tapdancing Christ, I see the light!: According to Politico, Pres. Obama invokes the name of Jesus Christ more so than his evangelical predecessor Pres. "Born Again" Bush. While Bush made it a part of his identity, Obama has embraced all religions, including reaching out to non-believers. It's an understandable move: About one in ten people walking around you in America believe he is a Muslim. Not that there's anything wrong with that, but I'm willing to bet that percentage is a tad higher in Arkansas. Looking at you, Grandma.

Republican Headliners Get Awkward: Sarah was invited, but she got subbed out for Newt, but unbeknownst to her, so she totally went up there, and then said stuff. Meanwhile, Huck did his own thing at the same exact time. And you thought the new 90210 was going to suck.

Don't Worry I'll Be Leaving Shortly: Dan Greenburg classes up the Arkansas Project with a touch of electability, this time opining on the merits of term limits. He says experience is overrated, and new-blood is invaluable. He probably voted for Obama. I'm sort of torn; While it's always good to liven up the place, and allow for new thoughts and faces and energies — not to mention the daunting incumbent advantage — I always tend to think that it leads people to focus on the elections rather the numbered days they have in office. Doesn't count for the Prez.

Talk Like An Egyptian: You'd have thought the press could've come up with a more sensitive name than 'The Muslim Speech.' Obama addresses the role of the United States in and with the Middle East and collectively, the Nation of Islam, using his personal appeal at home and abroad to make a speech that will be remembered for a long time. It was good, but there were several quotes that could be used by Republicans as ammo. The problem? Many in the GOP wont be able to enunciate a clear rebuttal, as they will be red-faced and slobberingly angry-toned, and will therefore come across as nothing more than an mad, sweaty-toothed, bigot/honky. The GOP needs a smooth talker. Badly.

Senator Get the Kids Out of the Room: Stormy Daniels, pornography actress(?) is, by many people's count, seriously taking this whole Senate run seriously. Seriously. No, we mean it. Politics just got interesting, or at least unboring.

Your Daily Dose of Onion (NSFW, audio):

Obama Drastically Scales Back Goals For America After Visiting Denny's

Caption Contest! Vic Snyder's Animal Planet

This week's caption contest comes with a little bit of a news-ish angle. The uber-incumbent, Vic Snyder, of Arkansas' 2nd district (Little Rock and surrounding, for you outtatowners) is coming under fire from the National Republican Congressional Committee with about 16 of his fellow Congressional Democrats for being too close and too involved with the GOPublic Enemy No. 1, Nancy Pelosi.

Brummett rightly assess that Pelosi is the primary target for Republicans by default since all the usual suspects (i.e. Clintons, Kennedys) are either retired, ill, or out of Congress. That doesn't mean she isn't a big — and perhaps vulnerable — target.

And it's clear that the GOP sees the 2nd district as perhaps the state's only swing district, solely by its diversity in the capitol city. The 1st and 4th are deeply ensconced in good ole boy blue, while the 3rd is just as militantly devoted, but to the Republican cause. The 2nd would be up for grabs to either a Republican or a Democrat if...

Vic Snyder weren't running, which he is. I did a thesis paper a couple of years ago about Arkansas' 2nd, and subsequently Vic Snyder, as the district's congressman. It could have very well been titled "Why Vic Snyder Is The Most Perfect Political Candidate Ever For Arkansas' 2nd District and Why No One Should Ever Think About Running Against Him."

The 2nd district is circular, with liberal Pulaski County at its core and conservative counties, like Saline, White, Faulkner, etc., on its perimeter. The constituency is split very well down the middle, as Little Rock (more liberal) is the biggest city in the state, countering the outnumbering of counties.

Snyder, too, is liberal at his core, but has a nice shell of Arkansas conservatism. Looking at the guy and his flannel shirt on the House floor, his mustache, his war record, his degrees in medicine AND law, why, he's the spittin' image of a baby made by Andy Griffith and Uncle Sam. Then you look at his voting record and see that why, he's no conservative at all, being pro-choice to name one issue, but among other stances that are often distanced by many Arkansas Democrats.

Oh and he's been in office for about 950 years, with only one (1) election being within double digits of victory. The incumbent's advantage is spoiled on Vic Snyder.

So if the state GOP is planning a coup, by all means go ahead. I don't know who your candidate would be, he'd have to have the money of French Hill coupled with the name recognition of Jesus of Nazareth, but crazier things have happened (like, every ballot initiative passing in 2008? Wacky stuff). Two words: Good. Luck. You are certainly going to need that and more.

Oh, but remember this is a caption contest. Lattimer won again last week, since he was the only one not cool enough to have plans for Memorial Day. Have at it, I think this could be a good one.