It's Funny Because It's True

Well here's just a dandy item forwarded to me from a dear friend in Dallas.

It seems that some of the creative folk at Vanity Fair have taken to Sarah Palin's lackluster resignation speech, giving it an honest edit.

The result is bloodshed. Literary bloodshed.

In Palin's defense for my Republican friends...well, there's no excuse really. "Shoulda done betta." If speaking is a supposed strong suit of hers, it certainly wasn't shown in her speech, which was described by most as "odd" and "off-putting."

Easy on the pounce though, my Democratic friends. In a recent Public Strategies poll shown off by Politico, skepticism of Democrats is on the rise. For as much of a dullard as it seems a great deal of people find Sarah Palin, who has even worse numbers? Oh, dang it, Nancy Pelosi, that Speaker of the House.

Those numbers reveal that Democrats — Obama included — are losing some of their cushy numbers. GOP rejoicing? Not so much. Republican numbers are even more putrid.

So if people are losing trust in Democrats, and have already lost trust in Republicans, who does that leave?

It's an interesting question for a later date, I'm afraid. I think there's some more dust that needs to be settled, but when it does, a great many of these patterns and trends could be thrown to the wind. It might sort of be like when a long-time incumbent resigns his or her post: it'll be up for grabs and highly contested. With the bad way the country is in these days, it might be so bad that both political parties are found culpable. Crazier stuff has happened.

Just a stray thought on my end I guess. Politics is weird in general.

What Couldn't Beebe Do?

As much as he'll hate it that I'm regurgitating and relinking another Arkansas author, John Brummett, the consummate political columnist and humanitarian, as well as my best friend in the whole wide world, made an interesting point that seems to have slipped under the radar, but opens the door to something that isn't often discussed here now in the third of his almost-assured eight year reign.

What else is Beebe going to do?

This will be a more discussed query in four years, when the governor will be winding his reign down, tidying up his legacy, and trying to pick who the next governor of Arkansas will be (I hear Beebe thinks the attorney general is just a swell guy).

Beebe, on the cover of a reputable periodical about state and local governments, has been hailed as perhaps one of the state's best governors, even by the person who has been voted as the state's best governor, Dale Bumpers.

Beebe is currently 62 years young. By the time he exits, forced out by term limits, he'll be 67, a still politically viable age, especially if good health prevails, heaven forbid the contrary. But Beebe is who he is because of where he's been: Arkansas. The thought of Beebe flying off to Washington doesn't seem like something we could see our cover boy doing.

Then I read this:

Imagine Beebe’s doing that today, announcing that he would run not for re-election, but for the U. S. Senate, and imagine him doing so because the incumbent of his own party, Blanche Lincoln, looks anemic in the polls.

Lincoln, Dustin McDaniel and Bill Halter would collide — she in frightened flight from a race she’d almost assuredly lose and the two men in frantic pursuit of the vacancy Beebe would be creating.

He's right. He's got more pull than Lincoln. Than Pryor. Than Berry. Than anyone. The fact of the matter is that Gov. Beebe is hands down the most powerful politician in the state, federal, state, and local combined.

That fact in and of itself opens a lot of doors to what Gov. Beebe could do.

Now there's nothing to say this is what he'll do. He could very well do what many believe he will do, ride off into the sunset, leaving an unblemished legacy as the best ole guvner this state has ever done seen. But, while that might be the only option for not just some, but many who are pushed out by term-limits, this is not the case for Beebe. He is unfettered.

And he's done it before. After being pushed out of the legislature in which he resided for about a billion years or so due to then-new-fangled term limits, Beebe set up shop as attorney general, waiting out Huckabee for the governorship.

Maybe there's another office that Beebe could inhabit. Could is the wrong word. Would is a better word.

It's there if Beebe wants it. And again, the fact that he could is a lot more than most people who could can say.

Do We Have a Contender?

That's a definite 'maybe.'

I've said before, as vulnerable as Sen. Lincoln's 2010 re-election campaign looks at this point, the roster of those who might be vying for the Republican nomination to dethrone her seems to be paltry at best.

The common criticism is that none of the possible candidates thus far have the firepower or name recognition to overthrown an incumbent. Sen. Mark Pryor did so in 2002, but had the credentials — not to mention a name as recognizable around Arkansas as Clinton, Dumpers, or Walton — to do so.

But there's a lot of time between now and November of 2010. While the fever-pitch associated with round-the-clock news coverage has certainly made far off issues — like the 2010 midterm and even the 2012 Presidential race — seem just around the corner, it also creates more opportunities for redemption, especially from this distance. A potential slip-up can now, at this time, be repaired, unless it's a big time gaffe that changes the perception upon which the contenders perception is based (uh, "that Jew" anyone?).

So..how's the race to the primary going thus far?

Kim Hendren made things interesting, to say the least. Some thought this boxed out maybe-candidate Gilbert Baker, as they were both state senators, yet Hendren would have secured the powerful Northwest Arkansas vote. Then that whole thing happened and Hendren won't even refer to himself as a candidate anymore. Not a good sign for him. A lot of people expected him to implode, but I don't think anyone thought he would do so with so much fireworks.

And, I must repeat, as I continue to scratch my head, he let the word out himself.

Hendren was the first to officially announce his candidacy, but he was not the first shark to smell the blood in the water. Tim Griffin, a former U.S. attorney and known Rove-anite, announced in December he was looking into getting into the race.

He has gone on speaking tours, he has gotten his name out there, but for the time being, not much else. Many believe he might have feigned a run to keep pressure on the incumbent Lincoln stick to a more conservative approach while legislating in the new Democratic Obama Administration. In an interview with me for the Bureau, he has said that he's weighing his other commitments, such as family and military duty.

If Griffin dos run, he'll have a haul in front of him. He's not that well known, although he has certainly made a lot of headway in that department. I'm not sure what his fund raising abilities would be, but they would have to be considerable as well.

Two businessmen are also in the mix, one rumored and one known to be contemplating.

I'm still hearing the name French Hill. The Delta Trust banker has considerable fundage, to say the least, and it could be said that that aspect could be the whole ball-game to toppling Lincoln, who has already well over $2 million on deck, ready to roll. But him even running is pure speculation; I'm sure he's been approached about it, but I haven't heard a peep from the man himself.

Curtis Coleman, a businessman and former evangelical minister, announced last week that he has formed an exploratory committee — with a staff, by the way — looking into it. During my discussion, he said that he felt confident enough about running to "take this next step."

Asked if he believed he could raise the necessary funds to beat Lincoln, Coleman said he believes he could. He said he thinks it will take between $5 and 8 million to beat Lincoln, and he also, when asked to repeat it, believes he can raise that amount of money. In fact, one of the reasons he launched the exp. committee, he said, was so that people who were just itching to give him their money would now have a legal avenue to do so.

Coleman's name isn't really out there. I'd wait to see how much dough he can garner in the next few months before we make any judgments. If he hasn't withered away by then, and can raise the money he says he can, he could be a dark horse for the primary.

The clear front-runner at this admittedly premature point is someone who hasn't announced, and says he's still thinking about it, although in an interview yesterday, says he's "more open" to the possibilities of running.

State Senator Gilbert Baker has the fewest negatives in the lot. He is an unwavering conservative, but has proven he works well enough across party lines (he has to: everyone else is on the other side). He seems to be able to stick to his guns, while getting some decent work done.

While certainly opposed to certain aspects of it, Baker helped weave an ambitious budget this year in the legislative session. He has the appeal of a stalwart conservative, and now that Kim Hendren is likely out of the picture, could secure the coveted NWA.

One thing that makes Gilberto stick out a little more than the others to me is his election experience. He ran against Joe White, a Conway Democrat who now, thanks to House Speaker Robbie Wills, serves on the Arkansas Lottery Commission. The name Joe White may not ring any bells but perhaps these names might: Mike Ross. Vic Snyder. Marion Berry. Mark Pryor. Mike Beebe. Bill Clinton. All of these All-star Arkansas Democrats spoke against Baker on the campaign trail, using all of their potent fund raising abilities and appeal to aide Joe White.

Baker won.

I'm not going to look too hard into this. Maybe Joe White was completely incompetent and everyone knew it, regardless of who spoke on his behalf (I really don't know, I was out of the state at that time). Maybe Baker is leaning too heavily on this experience for what will be a completely different ball game on a national as opposed to local stage.

But also, in the spirit of not looking too hard into it, that's mighty impressive to beat those good ole boys.

So what do these rankings mean in May of 2009? Probably the same as what they'll mean in November of 2010: Nothing too much, just some food for thought.

Prognostication: Democratic Victory on Tuesday

The 2008 Presidential Election concludes on Tuesday evening, and not soon enough. Frankly at this point, I couldn't care less. All of the ballots will be cast, and viewers everywhere will watch as the numbers flow in from all over the country. Expect most of those states to be red, expect most of those big cities to be blue, and expect there to be griping about Floridian geriatrics still looking for Hubert Humphrey on the ballot.

But the middle man, the swing vote, the undecideds in the country are who really count in this and any election, and the number of those in that category is quickly dwindling. Very simply, the question is this: Obama or McCain?

The answer will be Obama, and I pledge that I will not delete this should I be proven wrong.


Looking back at 2006, people were already rolling up their sleeve ready to back hand anybody associated with Dubya, which unfortunately includes the entirety of the GOP. Sure, there are plenty of Republicans — John McCain included — who didn't agree with a lot President Bush did in his tenure, but by sticking that 'R' in front of their state abbreviation, there was a tacit understanding by the public of "this is my boy, G-Bush." Political analyst Charlie Cook also recognizes the angst toward the Elephant Men (and Palin) saying this:

"Usually, when voters kick the heck out of one party, their anger is satisfied and they move on. Voters rarely come back the very next time and kick the same party hard again." -Charlie Cook

Everyone seems to be hating on Republicans, and it's very likely that they are convincing the previously unconvinced so far.

The title of the article highlights a victory on the Left. But don't worry about me, this title still covers me even if Obama somehow loses the election. The very fact that John McCain is the Republican candidate for President is already a Democratic victory. Another such victory would have been devotedly pro-choice and cross-dressing Rudy Giuliani. These guys are very nearly R.I.N.O.'s (Republicans In Name Only).

John McCain was indeed a maverick, but two problems arose during his campaign that tainted all of the authenticity of this claim. First off, people like Sarah Palin drove this pithy moniker into the ground like it stole their lunch money. "He's a mayaverrick, and I'm a mayaverrick, and we're gonna do all sorts of mayaverrickish things." This battle cry or anthem becomes a little more than mundane and just slightly less maddening than a campaign lawn ornament being driven through my ear hole.

The fact of the matter is that he was a bit of a maverick. He did reach across the aisle and he did piss off a lot of Republicans. If you need any reassurance of this, look at who's been sitting in the Oval Office since 2000. McCain lost in those primaries for not being conservative enough, which ultimately led to a Bush Administration in the first place.

Can you begrudge him for not falling for the same trick twice during this primary season attempt? McCain hit a snag, though, as a two-year primary season (far too long, in my opinion) that consisted of posturing towards and for far-right leaning constituents eradicated the rest of his entire bi-partisan Senate career. Two years out of the 164 years that he's been in the Senate was more than enough to ruin his chances in this race, which was more left-leaning than the 2000 presidential season, especially in this What Have You Done for Me Lately society of ours.

Speaking of What Have You Done for Me Lately voting, I'd discuss McCain's being hamstrung by this faulty at best economy at the worst possible time, but the discussions have already run him into the ground and I've never been one to kick a man while he's down. Well, that's not true, but it's safe to say that the economy ended up being the October Surprise, and McCain was the victim.

So Tuesday will happen. Unless this Bradley Effect — under which Obama may be polling better than people will actually vote, on the basis of racism being unpopular — is as bad as some pessimists forecast, which I don't; I feel pretty comfortable with that prediction. Whether or not I'm comfortable with that outcome is yet to be determined. There's not a lot of governance that we've seen out of this Obama fellow, but it's very possible that we may have just seen too much governance from John McCain.